INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 16, 2021, 7:37 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, March 16, 2021  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 



 

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +5.3%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +5.9%)

 



 

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +6.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +8.3%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 75.6%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index

 



 

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 84)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 



 

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,144.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,144.73. Second resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3834.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3964.00. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3834.41. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off September's high, monthly support crossing at 155-05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163-24. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 155-12. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 155-05.



June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.021 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.021. Second resistance is the February 24th high crossing at 134.200. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 131.230. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil was steady to lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.95 would signal that a short-term top might have been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $67.98. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.95. Second support is the March 3rd low crossing at $59.24.      



April heating oil was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $198.68. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $200.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $188.23. Second support is the March 2nd low crossing at $178.82.



April unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $199.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $217.00. Second resistance is the October 8th 2018 high crossing at $221.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $199.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $180.93.



April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.406 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.654 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.654. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.737. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.496. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.406.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $92.42. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $91.34. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.11.



The June Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $117.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.52. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.25. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $118.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85.

 

The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3799 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Closes last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3799. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight as extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0947 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0855. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0947. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $80.39. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $80.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.88.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight and trading below the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 0.0920. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0923. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1741.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1741.70. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1809.30. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1533.30.



May silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.628 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $26.628. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.  



May copper was steady to lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low  crossing at 3.8490 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is March's low crossing at 3.8490. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8239.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally on better-than-expected export shipments. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 3/4 would open the door for a test of the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.      



May wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.56 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is February's low crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second support is January's low crossing at $6.26.

 

May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.96 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.79.



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the January-March trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.36 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.42 would temper the near-term bearish out. First resistance is February's high crossing at $6.58 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $6.62. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.36 1/4. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.       

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans was lower overnight.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off last-August's low, psychological resistance crossing at $15.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.85. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $411.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      


May soybean oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 55.75. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 58.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 53.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.75.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $0.85 at $90.55. 



April hogs closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $91.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $92.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.58. Second support is the March 2nd low crossing at $85.13. 



April cattle closed up $0.13 at $119.13 



April cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.86. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $118.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 



April Feeder cattle closed up $0.70 at $143.93. 


April Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $145.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 144.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $145.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.21. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.           



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, February's high crossing at 140.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.87 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 12.21.          



May cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.82 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.            



May sugar closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.43 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.    



May cotton closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 82.87 would open the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at 81.06.       

Comments
By metmike - March 16, 2021, 3:31 p.m.
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thank you tallpine!