Ahhhh—Bean oil!!!
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Started by stomper - March 22, 2021, 2:14 p.m.

Ain’t this sweet? Limit bid with THOUSANDS of buy orders. I steped aside during last week’s fall off from the contract high with a decent gain but since I’m just getting my sea legs back, I figured to be better safe than sorry. This morning/last night the charts looked kinda good so I stepped back in at -30 on the day. Whew! What a ride. I kinda thought the negative price action in the Far East markets was a bit bogus in view of the fundamental picture but man oh man, I wasn’t expecting this vigorous action today. Was rather anticipating a “turn around Tuesday “ tomorrow. Maybe the corn will catch fire again. I’d like that since I’m long and edgy on that position. 

I’m a basic fundamentalist at heart but the quants and managed trigger pullers have the sophisticated tech analysis programs that kinda rule so I try to shirt-sleeve emulate ‘em. Turtle rules, baby

Trade on!

By Jim_M - March 22, 2021, 2:18 p.m.
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By stomper - March 22, 2021, 2:19 p.m.
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If I knew how to take a screen shot I’d post the fill time and price. 53.60 @ 1:10 cdt. 

2.5k pool, May, near the close. 

By stomper - March 22, 2021, 2:30 p.m.
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Usage is just too widespread. I’m an inveterate label reader foodie and you’d be amazed at the palm oil usage in our processed foods. It is the third world’s primary cooking oil, canola/rapeseed oil outta Canada is having problems too. Of course this will be corrected over time but I’ll be long gone by then. 

That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it. 

By stomper - March 22, 2021, 8:39 p.m.
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100+ point gap higher at the night opening. I’m gone with a 395 point gain in less than 18 hours. Much too large of a chunk to not take as it augments my little account nicely. Now I can re-enter at my leisure, either long after the attempt to close the gap or short for the gap-filling run. But any pressure is gone. One must conquer the two basic emotions—fear and greed, to be a successful trader. 

My objective is to rebuild the account, not swing for homer’s every trade. This one far exceeded my expectations quickly so, into the bank with it. Resting easy. Will wait and see for a reentry.

Trade on!

By metmike - March 22, 2021, 9:12 p.m.
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Huge congrats to you stomper!

Pretty unusual for the bean oil to be leading like this.

Looks like part of it is coming from demand for bean oil to make bio diesel to replace fossil fuels as well as edible vegetable sector as you mentioned.

By Jim_M - March 23, 2021, 9:43 a.m.
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Hard to rationalize bean oils strength when there seems to be little demand for it.  

By mcfarmer - March 23, 2021, 11:49 a.m.
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Thanks for the heads up guys. I had quit selling beans until I read this. 

Sold  some today and now that the snow is gone and the yard has firmed up I can haul them.

By metmike - March 23, 2021, 11:54 a.m.
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This is bean OIL not meal that you posted about.

They are having to crush massive amounts of beans to get the oil, which is where the excessive demand is. 

What's left is the bean meal, which does not have as much demand and is not having the panic buying.

At least that's how I understand it.

By metmike - March 23, 2021, 11:57 a.m.
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Oil led bull markets in beans are very unusual if memory serves me right and they don't usually have the staying power as meal led bull markets but I might be wrong about that.

Each situation is different and we are living in unique times.

If bean oil suddenly has incredible value added because it can be turned into bio diesel, as the fake climate crisis agenda is imposed,  then maybe things have changed.

By Jim_M - March 23, 2021, 1:49 p.m.
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Read the next line Mike.  Oil sales of 52.7% for 2020/2021 vs 5yr average of 61.4%.  No demand.  

By stomper - March 24, 2021, 12:50 a.m.
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After that flurry of activity, I’m really glad I stepped aside. Makes sleeping very easy. 

Thx, Jim for your input. Added a cautious element to the euphoria.

Trade on!

By Jim_M - March 24, 2021, 9:55 a.m.
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Double the price of last summer, yet 10% behind on sales for 5 yr average makes the price rather unpalatable.  Seems like a great place for a put or three

By metmike - March 24, 2021, 11:54 a.m.
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Sorry that I completely missed the oil comment in there........thanks for pointing it out.

I can guess then, that's it's much about expected demand for bio diesel from bean oil because of the massive push to crush fossil fuels.

The climate crisis folks have won the battle.

Now, we will watch the agenda being imposed, starting with carbon taxes on all forms of fossil fuels. Gasoline will have a carbon tax put on it.
Natural gas and coal also. Maybe twice on coal........on those that mine coal, then again on those that burn it.........power plants. 

Consumers will pay the price.

Not maybe but just a question of how steep the price increases/taxes/penalties can be for the left to get away with/pass.

By Jim_M - March 24, 2021, 12:13 p.m.
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That could take years to play out, especially since diesels have become the bane of environmentalists.....if it EVER happens.  

I think this is the same BS that NG went through over the last couple months.  Analysts holding traders on edge about China demand that never comes or at least to the level they promoted.  

By metmike - March 24, 2021, 12:50 p.m.
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Thanks Jim,

With regards to demand for natural gas, we had a mild Winter other than that 2-3 week extreme cold spell in February.

Storage went from the top of the historical average to BELOW the 5 year average. The supply surplus was already being whittled down before the extreme cold hit.

Last 3 EIA reports were bearish though. 


Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By Jim_M - March 24, 2021, 1:34 p.m.
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True enough, but it had little to do with Chinese demand.  

By metmike - March 25, 2021, 11:55 a.m.
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Global edible oil prices near their peak, but retreat may be slow - analysts


Major vegetable oil prices such as palm oil and soybean oil have likely already peaked at multi-year highs in 2021, lifted by a cocktail of production hiccups, recovering food consumption and an upbeat outlook for biofuel demand, leading industry analysts said at the Virtual Palm and Lauric Oils Price Outlook Conference.

But a constrained recovery in palm oil production due to an enduring labour shortage in Malaysia, and a slowdown in soybean oil output in China due to stalled soymeal demand growth, will prevent prices from falling too steeply.

By metmike - March 25, 2021, 12:08 p.m.
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March 25: Most-active CBOT soybean oil futures fall the daily 2.5 cent limit after hitting more than 8-year highs earlier in the week. However, they are slightly more than double the contract's price on the same date in 2020.Image

By stomper - March 25, 2021, 1:03 p.m.
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Thx, metmike. The gap is certainly filled now. Interesting scenario where we’ll go from here. The US $ surge will have a serious impact on all the grain prices (as well as any international commodities priced in dollars).  I imagine it’ll take some time for the dust to settle. Sidelined, for now.

Trade on!

By metmike - March 25, 2021, 2:08 p.m.
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That was a classical gap and crap buying exhaustion formation....that happens at the top of a huge move up. I've noted this technical formation over a dozen times here.

I sure wouldn't want to trade against it!

                Gap and Crap buying exhaustion formation            

                            Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.