INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 25, 2021, 7:34 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, March 25, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +4.1%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q%

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)

 

                        

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 770K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +45K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 4124000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -18K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1226.8K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 202.4K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 529.1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1782B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -11B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 26)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 44)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 24)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 34)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, March 26, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +10%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March-January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 76.8)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 70.7)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 86.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline led by a tech sell off.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12,681.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3856.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3856.14. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-27. Second resistance is the February 26th high crossing at 161-02. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.



June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.071 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.071. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.000. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.      



May heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.85. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17. 



May unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $186.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $200.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $200.84. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $186.03. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. 



May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 16th gap crossing at 2.619 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the March 16th gap crossing at 2.619. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.669. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $92.72. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.01.



The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $117.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.72. First support is the overnight low crossing at $118.20. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85.

 

The June British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3888 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0824 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0824. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1066. First support is March's low crossing at 1.0695. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $80.88. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.06. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks  around the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 0.0920. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0924 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0924. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.0930. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 0.0915. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $1719.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $1756.00 would open the door for additional short covering gains near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1788.80. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.



May silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.740 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.740. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.  



May copper was lower in overnight trading and poised to breakout to the downside of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8873 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8873. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.42 1/2 would open the door for a test of the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $6.36. First support is March's low crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.     



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the December 28th low crossing at $6.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.52. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $6.88 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $6.17. Second support is the December 28th low crossing at $6.08.

 

May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.06 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.66 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.38 would temper the near-term bearish out. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.38. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $6.52 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.21. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.19 3/4.       

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were lower overnight.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.93 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.93 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks above the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain oversold and neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $409.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $409.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $422.90. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      


May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 58.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.56. Second support is March's low crossing at 48.62.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.30 at $97.78. 



April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $97.93. Second resistance is the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.74. 



April cattle closed unchanged at $119.13. 



April cattle closed unchanged on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.87. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $118.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 



April Feeder cattle closed up $2.70 at $142.45. 


April Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, last-Thursday's high crossing at $145.83 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low would open the door for a test of March's low crossing at $137.22. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $145.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $138.43. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.           



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 12.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.         



May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 23.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.            



May sugar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 14.80.      



May cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, February's low crossing at 81.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - March 25, 2021, 11:41 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!