INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 26, 2021, 7:57 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, March 26, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +10%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +2.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March-January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 76.8)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 70.7)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.3%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 86.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight.The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 12,681.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the February 25th high crossing at 13,337.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is March's low crossing at 12,200.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-February-rally crossing at 12,146.81.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3858.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3978.50. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3858.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 3710.50.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were sharply lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 156-21. Second resistance is the February 26th high crossing at 161-02. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.



June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.056 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.056. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.000. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $62.55. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.      



May heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $186.37. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17. 



May unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $200.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $186.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $200.65. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $186.53. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. 



May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 16th gap crossing at 2.619 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short covering gains. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the March 16th gap crossing at 2.619. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.663. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $92.94. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.84.



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, November's low crossing at $116.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.48. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at $117.85. Second support is the November's low crossing at $116.93.

 

The June British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3880 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.  



The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0802 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0802. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1052. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0641. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $80.88. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at $82.27. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.07. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0923 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0923. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.0941. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 0.0911.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $1719.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $1756.00 would open the door for additional short covering gains near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1785.90. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.



May silver was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.740 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $26.740. Second resistance is the February 23rd high crossing at $28.470. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $25.111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $24.059.  



May copper was higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8957 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8956. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.42 3/4 would open the door for a test of the February 11th low crossing at $5.23 1/4. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $5.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $5.72. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is March's low crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second support is the the 25% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at $5.14.      



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.40 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.40 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.08 1/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2.

 

May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.03. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.64. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.06 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.37 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $6.06 3/4.       

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were lower overnight.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.93 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.93 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks above the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $408.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $408.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $422.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      


May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's limit down trade. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 58.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.70. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 52.97.      


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $1.90 at $99.68. 



April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $99.75. Second resistance is the April-2019 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $99.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $94.59. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $91.22. 



April cattle closed up $0.43 at $119.55. 



April cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.91. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $126.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $118.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February-rally crossing at $117.72. 



April Feeder cattle closed up $1.78 at $144.23. 


April Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's rally, last-Thursday's high crossing at $145.83 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low would open the door for a test of March's low crossing at $137.22. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $145.83. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $147.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $138.43. Second support is March's low crossing at $137.22.           



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 12.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.         



May cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 23.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.            



May sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 14.80. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      



May cotton closed limit down on Thursday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 74.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.       

Comments
By metmike - March 26, 2021, 11:40 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Bean oil looks like a buying exhaustion, gap and crap top type formation with today's action but in volatile markets like this, that might not hold longer term. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66967/


NG EIA report was BULLISH after 3 bearish weeks, This confirms that the lows are in for in!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66971/


exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66983/


beans/corn:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66925/


 Suez canal blocked

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67103/