Weekend Grain comment
3 responses | 0 likes
Started by bcb - April 2, 2021, 2:15 p.m.
  • 4-3-21

    Friday April 9th USDA Production / Supply / Demand
    11 am CDT

    Prospective Plantings
    Corn 91.1 acres                    Trade Est. 93.1
    Beans 87.6                                               90
    Surprise / Bullish
    Right now on breaks new crop Corn and Beans will find support.
    Trade vol will be for July and Dec. Corn and July and Nov. beans
    going forward.
    MHO we could see 5 million more acres come into production

    Eye opening stats / Bull spreaders running out the door
    July Beans plus 5.50 cents for the week
    July / Nov bean spread down 51 cents for the week

    July corn plus 9.50 cents for the week
    July / Dec. corn spread down 8.50 cents for the week

    The weeks ranges :
    July corn / July Beans / Dec. Corn and Nov. Beans made there
    4 week Highs and 4 week lows

    4 week avgs.
    CK   558            CN   542.25            CZ   471.25
    WK  628            WN   622.25
    SK   1412.25     SN   1401.50           SX   1234.50  

    Monday after the close margin increases take effect
    Possible more risk off???

    Hogs made new Highs and no technical indicators that could turn this
    market YET. My June hog target is up around 113-114 mho.

    Be Safe


By metmike - April 2, 2021, 4:15 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much bcb!

Good info.

Volatile markets.

Shocked by the bull(sheet)ish  made up USDA planting numbers on Wednesday.....lock limit up!

Trading the more likely REAL numbers on Thursday......gap up followed by a massive reversal, sharply lower close and buying exhaustion formation on the charts.......for old crop prices.

New crop prices did poorly on Thursday but not as bad.

Bear spreading(nearby contracts losing on distant contracts is usually pretty bearish).

However, the market speculators might only be re-configuring  where they want their money, putting most of it on the new crop, that has the greatest potential for an explosive move higher.



By bcb - April 4, 2021, 11:45 a.m.
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My 3-14th grain comments I made..possible range for Dec. Corn Highs 485.25-491.25 and Lows of 451-449. 

By metmike - April 4, 2021, 3:38 p.m.
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Thanks bcb,

Here's your post from 3-14:


Here's an interesting thing about this:

"range for Dec. Corn Highs 485.25-491.25 and Lows of 451-449"

We traded to the bottom of that range just before 11 am on Wednesday, just BEFORE the bullish USDA at 449.75...............then, later in the same day, after the open of the Thursday session, shortly after 7pm, we exceeded the trading range highs by hitting 493. 

So within an 8 hour time frame, we exceeded that range. WOW!

You forgot to tell us that this was the range for day traders (-: