Forecast: Below-average hurricane activity in 2018
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Started by metmike - July 2, 2018, 3:47 p.m.

Back to the hurricane drought? Forecast: Below-average hurricane activity in 2018

from WUWT

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/02/forecast-below-average-hurricane-activity/

"A main factor in this year’s prediction is the low sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic, where little warming occurred from April to May.

The sea surface temperatures are the lowest Zeng and his team have seen since 2014, but similar to long-term average temperatures. 

“These conditions imply an average year for hurricane activities; however, tropical Atlantic Ocean surface easterly wind — from east to west, the so-called trade wind — is stronger than in most years,” Zeng said. “This implies a stronger wind shear, which usually reduces hurricane activities. Therefore, together, we predict a slightly below average year for hurricane activities.”

If the 2018 UA hurricane forecast is as accurate as it has been over the last few years, the U.S. can expect smoother sailing as it continues to recover from an estimated $282.16 billion in damages caused last year during one of the most catastrophic hurricane seasons in history."


Look at that band of cool/blue in the Atlantic below, where many of our hurricanes form/track. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.7.2.2018.gif

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.7.2.2018.gifhttps://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomw.7.2.2018.gif

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By metmike - July 2, 2018, 5:05 p.m.
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