KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, July 3, 2018  

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.0%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)

9:45 AM ET. June ISM-NY Report on Business

                       Business Index (previous 56.4)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.8%)

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.7%)

                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.6%)

10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 53.9)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 51.2)

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day

4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales

                       Auto Sales Annualized (expected 16.9M; previous 16.91M)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -9.2M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)

Wednesday, July 4, 2018 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 365.3)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.9%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 244.3)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.9%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1015.9)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.5%)

  N/A              U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed

  N/A              Marianas: U.S. Independence Day

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7186.35 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 6855.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7186.35. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6998.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50. 

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2758.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00. 

The Dow closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 23,531.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,767.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,767.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 25,402.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 23,997.21. Second support is May's low crossing at 23,531.31.      

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed down 10/32's at 144-22.

September T-bonds closed lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 142-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 145-28 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-06. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.      

September T-notes closed down 50-points at 120-010.

September T-notes closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.116 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 120.145. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.     

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 74.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 69.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.74. 

August heating oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.83 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 219.13 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 229.60. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is June's low crossing at 206.89. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 

August unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.39 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.

August Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.897 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.821 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.941 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.821. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.01. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.76.     

The September Euro closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 117.95 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 117.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.95. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    

The September British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3366 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3366. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3502. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday while extending the trading range of the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.18 is needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.24. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9176 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9176. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is today's low crossing at 0.9048. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.   

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off April's high and tested the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1279.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1261.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1279.80. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.

September silver closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.580 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.263. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.580. First support is today's low crossing at 15.800. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625.        

August copper closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 286.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 300.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.86. First support is today's low crossing at 291.85. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 286.34.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed down 11 1/4-cents at 3.60. 

December corn closed sharply lower on Monday and posted a new low for the year. Trade fears and lack of weather threat send bulls running for cover shortly after the day session began and extended selling into the close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  

December wheat closed down 19-cents at 4.97 3/4. 

December wheat posted a key reversal down with Monday's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.42. First support is today's low crossing at 4.96. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 17 3/4-cents at 4.93 3/4. 

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 10-cents at 5.44 1/2. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.64 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down 10 1/2-cents at 8.69 1/2. 

November soybeans closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.94 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.94 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.34. First support is today's low crossing at 8.66 1/4. Second support is the August-2015 low crossing at 8.62 3/4.

December soybean meal closed down $2.40 at 327.50. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 345.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 333.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 345.00. First support is today's low crossing at 325.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 

December soybean oil closed down 35-points. At 29.08. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's high, the August-2015 low crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.34. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed down $2.08 at $74.38. 

August hogs closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, April's high crossing at 72.45 is the next upside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 80.55. First support is June's low crossing at 73.28. Second support is April's low crossing at 72.45.  

October cattle closed down $0.18 at 109.85. 

October cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 105.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.12. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.60 at $151.93. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 153.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.33. Second support is June's low crossing at 142.18.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  

September cocoa closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.13 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 22.64 is the next downside target.  

October sugar closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

October cotton closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.80 would confirm that a low has been posted.