INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - April 7, 2021, 4:04 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, April 8, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 690K; previous 719K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +61K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 3794000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -46K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 857.3K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 236.8K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 331.1K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1764B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +14B)



12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, April 9, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. March PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.5%)



10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1.3%)



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)\



Monday, April 12, 2021 



2:00 PM ET. March Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S.


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's record setting rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off January's low into uncharted territory, upside targets hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,892.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 33,617.95. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,892.93. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 32,071.41. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,886.56. 

 

The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,067.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 13,655.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,067.30. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 12,609.75. 



The June S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3954.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4076.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3983.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3954.44.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed down 16/32's at 156-01. 

  

June T-bonds closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 157-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off November's high, the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 157-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-25. First support is the March 18th low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.



June T-notes closed down 5-pts. At 131.220.



June T-notes closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 132.095 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the January 27th high, the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 132.095. Second resistance is the March 2nd high crossing at 133.230. First support is Monday's low crossing at 130.255. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $55.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the March 30th high crossing at $62.27 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $62.37. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.98. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rallycrossing at $55.69.  



May heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $183.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $183.87. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.68. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $164.17.  



May unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $203.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $191.13 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $203.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $191.13. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06.    



May Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.740. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.352.



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 92.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 94.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 93.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at 94.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing 91.42.    



The June Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.12 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 115.98 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 119.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.12. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 117.21. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 115.98.  



The June British Pound closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3494 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4009 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1.3494.

 

The June Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the March 17th high crossing at 1.0880 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0447 is the next downside target.First resistance is the March 17th high crossing at 1.0880. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0965. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0586. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-January-rally crossing at 1.0447.



The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.20 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26th low crossing at 78.42. If June renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 80.88 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 80.52. Second resistance is the February-2018 high crossing at 82.27. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.20. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at 78.42. 



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly higher for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, last-March's low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at 0.0923. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0902. Second support is last-March's low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0900.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below March's low crossing at $1676.20 are needed to renew the decline January's high. First resistance is the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1767.00. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-rally crossing at $1634.70.  



May silver posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.459 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 23.102 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.459. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.300. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 24.059. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 23.102. 



May copper closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 437.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 395.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 422.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 437.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 395.29. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 381.34.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed up $0.06 1/4-cents at $5.60 1/2. 



May corn closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, psychological resistance crossing at $6.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.85. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4. Second support is the March 4th low crossing at $5.29 1/4. 



May wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $6.16 1/4.  



May wheat closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $5.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.44. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-January-rally crossing at $5.70.       



May Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.07 3/4-cents at $5.63 1/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.81 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.81 3/4. Second resistance is the March 17th high crossing at $5.09 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2.      



May Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.13 1/2-cents at $6.24 1/2. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.22 1/2 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If May extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 3/4 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $6.52 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.97 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2.   

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down $0.10-cents at $14.08 3/4.



May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at $14.60 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of this year's trading range and renew the long-term uptrend. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.97.



May soybean meal closed up $2.70 to $409.10. 



May soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $442.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $442.10. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $463.60. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $376.30.       



May soybean oil closed down 107-pts. at 52.85. 



May soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 49.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 59.60. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 49.81.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $2.28 at $107.90. 



June hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday and posted a new contract high as it extended the rally off last fall's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $108.13. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.60. 



June cattle closed up $0.65 at $125.30. 



June cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $125.35. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $127.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.15. 



May Feeder cattle closed up $0.90 at $152.68. 


May Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at $159.90 is the next upside target. Closes below below the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $153.48. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $159.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.94. Second support is the March 19th low crossing at $143.65.            



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 11.95 is the next downside target.          



May cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of last-November's rally crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.            



May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13.96.      



May cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 74.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

Comments
By metmike - April 7, 2021, 10:43 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!!!



Natural gas............major April cold coming up.......too late in the year and not lasting long enough to keep us going higher? Enough to cause major support to hold.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66971/


Crop progress............still early in the year:...........weather has turned bullish KC wheat.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67515/


EXTREMELY bullish USDA last week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67276/


Grains...........weather has turned bullish MINN/MWE WHEAT and  KC wheat

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67376/


Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67498/