INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 8, 2021, 7:37 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, April 8, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 690K; previous 719K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +61K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3794000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -46K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 857.3K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 236.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 331.1K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1764B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +14B)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. March Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, April 9, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1.3%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)\

 



 

 

Monday, April 12, 2021  

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. March Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S.

 


 

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13,888.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,115.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,743.75. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 13,888.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,115.90. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 12,609.75.  



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-September's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-September's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3964.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4092.75. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3964.36. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3893.60.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 157-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off last-September's high, the June-2019 low on monthly support crossing at 152-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 157-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 159-17. First support is March's low crossing at 153-07. Second support is the June-2019 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 152-27.



June T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 25th high crossing at 132.095 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 25th high crossing at 132.095. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.079. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 130.260. Second support is the February-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 130.070. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69. Closes above the March 30th high crossing at $62.27 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the March 30th high crossing at $62.27. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $67.79. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $57.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $55.69.      



May heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $183.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $183.28. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $198.30. First support is the March 23rd low crossing at $173.15. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at $164.17.



May unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $203.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $191.69 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $203.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $215.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $191.69. Second support is the 38% retracement of the November-March-rally crossing at $177.06. 



May Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 2.688. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-February-rally crossing at 2.445. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.353.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $94.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-January-decline crossing at $94.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.45.



The June Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.13 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.06. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at $121.40. First support is March's low crossing at $117.21. Second support is the November's low crossing at $116.93.

 

The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3490 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3922 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3922. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4009. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3672. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.3494.  



The June Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the March 17th high crossing at 1.0880 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0447 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 17th high crossing at 1.0880. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0954. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0586. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0447.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.17 would open the door for a possible test of the February 26th low crossing at $78.42. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $79.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $79.99. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $80.88. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.17. Second support is the February 26th low crossing at $78.42.  



The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is the March 23rd high crossing at 0.0923. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0902. Second support is the February-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.0892.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the March 18th high crossing at $1756.00. Second resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1764.90. First support is March's low crossing at $1676.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2015-2020-rally crossing at $1617.40.



May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.429 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $25.429. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.299. First support is March's low crossing at $23.740. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at $23.102.  



May copper was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9619 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 4.3755 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.3755. Second resistance is the August-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.5400. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9619. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8134.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's gains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, it will take a friendly WASDE report on Friday to sustain an upside breakout of this year's trading range. If May resumes the rally off last-Tuesday's low, psychological resistance crossing at $6.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.85. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $6.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.33 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.29 1/4.      



May wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.31 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.31 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.43 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $5.70.

 

May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.79 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.79 1/2. Second resistance is the March 17th high crossing at $6.09 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.52 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-March-rally crossing at $5.26 1/2.



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 1/2 would open the door for additional gains provided Friday's WASDE report is neutral to bullish. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.13 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.32 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $6.32 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.93 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at $5.79.      

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is likely ahead of Friday's WASDE report. If May renews last-Wednesday's rally, March's high crossing at $14.60 is the next downside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $14.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $15.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $13.64 1/4. Second support is the February 11th low crossing at $13.36 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews last-week's rally, the February 9th high crossing at $442.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $404.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $434.00. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $442.10. First support is the 38% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at $396.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of August-January rally crossing at $376.30.      


May soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 50.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.08. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 58.25. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 50.02.       


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $2.28 at $107.90. 



June hogs closed sharply higher on Wednesday and posted a new contract high as it extended the rally off last fall's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $108.13. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $110.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.60. 



June cattle closed up $0.65 at $125.30. 



June cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, weekly resistance crossing at $127.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $125.35. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at $127.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.15. 



May Feeder cattle closed up $0.90 at $152.68. 


May Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at $159.90 is the next upside target. Closes below below the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $153.48. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $159.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.94. Second support is the March 19th low crossing at $143.65.            



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 128.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 11.95 is the next downside target.          



May cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of last-November's rally crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.            



May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 13.96.      



May cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 74.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

Comments
By metmike - April 8, 2021, 10:51 a.m.
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Natural gas............major April cold coming up.......too late in the year and not lasting long enough to keep us going higher? Enough to cause major support to hold. EIA Thursday was neutral.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66971/


Crop progress............still early in the year:...........weather has turned bullish KC wheat....and the rest of the grains on Thursday as the rains wind down for awhile.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67515/


EXTREMELY bullish USDA last week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67276/


Grains...........weather has turned bullish MINN/MWE WHEAT and  KC wheat....and now the rest of the grains on Thursday as the rains wind down and the forecast turns dry for the next couple of weeks.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67376/


Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67498/