All trade estimates ahead of Friday's USDA report, coming out at noon EST. This is the last WASDE where 2020/21 is the most recent marketing year - the May report will feature 2021/22 predictions for the first time.
My take is that this was clearly bearish for beans. The increase in world soy stocks was sort of a shocker to me.
On the other hand, it's mildly bullish for corn and mixed for wheat but overall bullish with world ending stocks for wheat clearly being bullish(though US stocks are bearish).
At these corn prices, there will be more demand for feed wheat unless wheat prices go higher than they are right now(or corn drops a great deal).
How much was expected? Historically, this report doesn't cause that much difference to prices or get that much attention.
The forecast turns very dry for the 2nd half of April. If that continues into early May, no way will be go lower.
I wonder how much feed stock switching there really is? I wonder if it's another one of those myths, like plant in the mud, crop is a dud or plant in the dust, bins will bust. Or crop switching during planting season, due to any number of factors that analysts would have us believe.
How about you live stock growers out there? How much switching goes on?
Great question jim!
This is just an article discussing it:
By Claire Hutchins, USW Market Analyst
https://www.uswheat.org/wheatletter/u-s-wheat-prices-competitive-with-corn-for-domestic-feed-use/
HRW can be substituted for corn as cattle feed in the High and Southern Plains where much of the country’s HRW wheat is grown. The cattle industry, predominant in Kansas and Texas, favors wheat as a feed ingredient when HRW is less than $1.00/bu more expensive than corn.
To answer a couple questions "here" S.W Ont. Canada
A hog feeder has said Ontario SRW wheat is cheaper than corn at current prices in his ration. He usually feeds corn but seems willing to feed the lowest cost ration
On our farm we will plant more soybean acres. This decision was made several months ago
Price was a consideration plus soil type suitable for soybeans and rotation, on newly rented ground we did not farm two yrs ago
This just seemed to be the yr best suited for rotation purposes. Price was a definite consideration as we usually plant all COC except for one 50 acre field which rotation is an advantage
Until this new rented ground became available our soil type does not grow good yields of soybeans
Going forward we might continue with more beans but corn is our main crop acres, even this yr
This yr will see a larger planting of soybeans on our farm. This rented ground has grown soybeans but not on a regular basis. Planting date and weather seem to dictate corn vs soybeans on this rented ground in past yrs. with corn the preferred crop
Thanks for answering the question from somebody in the business that knows a thing or 2 or 3 or 10 about it.
