Has anybody noticed if you fade the green corn nite trade you will be a winner come Monday red trade
New crop CBOT keeps creeping up a cent or two I haven't checked exactly]
Our buyers offer only goes to June 2022
Doesn't matter. We have been getting small amounts of rain but rain gauge hardly measures. We have to accumulate a week or more of showers to show in the rain gauge. but soil is still dry in a day or less. Wet holes all dried up, plant any where. People digging down say the sub soil is dry as powder. We will need timely rains to produce a crop this yr. June is when we need the deep moisture. usually have a dry spell in June
This yr if dry in June yields will really suffer
I won't sell until I know what the crop looks like
The dry soil is really serious and there are others more dry than us, according to the drought map. Pockets here and there in the country have received rain so all is not lost. It is a big corn belt.
At least when we start to plant we will have enough top soil moisture to germinate and do some growing, but rain, so far, does not leave any puddles in the drive way or around the bins. That drive way does not soak in rain. It always leaves puddles. Tiles are empty. Dug in an under ground pipe [at least 1000' or more in total and all of it went under field tile] so we know what sub soil moisture looks like "here"
JJA will tell the story this yr.
I remember one spring no rain until June 28 on April planting. Had a good crop that yr.
Thanks Wayne!
"I remember one spring no rain until June 28 on April planting. Had a good crop that yr."
WOW! What year was that Wayne?
I don't remember exactly, but it was the 1st yr my son came back to the farm from working full time with Cargill.
Cargill did not suit him, could not find another job. I found a bunch of rented ground for him, we had two old tractors
I remember because we had a huge to us operating loan for this rented ground and I was worried about re-payment. Crop was suffering badly.
Maybe 25 yrs ago. My brain is like jelly
150 bu corn was a good crop back then for us
I sold him on the idea the forward cash contract price was really good, so then we contracted, no rain and had to produce to fill the contracts
As I said, all was good and he got some extra money to start farming and asked if every yr was like this
I said no, some yrs you barely make living expenses or even less., so pay down debt, keep operating cushion for bad yrs etc. Money management is king. Machinery is a necessary evil. Down time repairing vs cost of newer machine. Which is most important on limited funds. Purchased land never cash flows, or everybody would buy
We had a few crisis along the way but over came difficulties, mostly capital needs and then re-payment
Now with 3 families we look to be bigger than we really are, but so far, all is good with today's price
Last yr was 1st yr my grandson farmed full time after college.
He also walked into rented ground but that was land on my wife's side with nobody in next generation that wants to farm. So BIL asked if we would rent his ground.
Great to read that your family farming operation is going so well today Wayne!
Just a bit more on growing conditions and price "here"
I am all sold out of old crop with my last sale @ 8.00/bu CAD remember this is CAD and if domestic stocks are tight then transportation from the USA is an added cost to the end user. That 8.00 helped with the average but hind sight says I sold way too much 5.50 corn
My son is the only member of the family holding old crop corn. Talking to people around our circle of farmers and most are completely sold out of old crop. Doesn't mean the end user is desperate for corn as most people with storage have 5.00 summer contracts to fill which will keep the end user in corn. But we get some live stock people calling for corn at the end of season before new crop hits the market and the end user never knows exactly their needs and will pay up for those final bu. Some yrs it pays to hold late in the season and some yrs is a loser. Mostly a winner but I could not let 8.00 come and go. I think my son will sell for more than 8.00 just talking to who has corn and who is sold out like me.
However, in our neck of the woods I have never had this happen before. I am afraid to forward contract for fear of growing a crop. The soil is so dry and our sub soil is powder dry. We need that deep moisture during June when we usually have a dry spell and then August rains start. That is the usual weather pattern here, but this yr is different in that rain comes and hardly gets the patio stones wet. The moisture is gone so quickly
So: I may be wrong and new crop drops in price but it is serious enough this is the 1st yr in memory I have not had some corn contracted now or in a month from now
This yr it will be all about dry soil and how well the crop handles dry weather. I can't contract and then not fill my contract. That means trying to find corn on the open market and that would be a double disaster. No crop and looking for corn to cover a promise to deliver
We will start planting sweet corn under plastic as soon as the fertilizer gets spread tomorrow and worked into the soil. Our commercial corn will soon follow [probably wait another week] due to frost in May on emerged corn, also depending on weather reports for temp and gosh some rain would help, even if we plant a day later due to unexpected rain of any amount
So the story here is dry soil and crop prospects this growing season. Price keeps creeping up on new crop but no selling from my acres. A huge crop risk this yr. like I have never seen before. We always grow a crop, average to very good [last yr was 200 bu farm average] my acreage was a bit better. but golly things look a bit grim so far.
I would not want a lot of debt payments this yr.