Overnight Markets... Wow!
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Started by stomper - April 27, 2021, 3:55 p.m.

Boy was it happening last night. And did I screw up huge. Had a sell limit order July wheat at 770.25. The high got to 769.5. I couldn’t conquer the fear/greed thing so I stuck to my (altered) plan. Had done a cancel/replace of a sell order at 759.5 earlier. Then greedy me didn’t bail on my limit up bean oil. Oh man, what an opportunity blown. I won’t soon forget this lesson. Both markets hit my trailing stops during the day session blowout. Loss of a few thousands of profits. UGH! Stepped back into both markets later but the initial game plan was severely fractured. Then the sell-off at the close was NOT appreciated. I will still continue to ply the night markets ‘cause it seems to reflect the unadulterated markets, without the algo’s and funds. Fear and greed. Our big enemies. Bah humbug!

So there. Rant off. 

By metmike - April 27, 2021, 5:19 p.m.
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Thanks very much stomper!

Sorry to hear that things didn't work out so great for you but you have the exact right mentality to do better next time.

HONEST analysis of what happened and willingness to acknowledge mistakes or imperfections.

I worry the most about traders that only post when they had good trades. Or embellish on what they predicted.............AFTER it happened.

Thanks so much for sharing with us.

Humility is always good as long as it doesn't make us afraid to pull the trigger to follow our trade. 

Too much ego results in over confidence and dumb mistakes or over trading. 

Tough to have just the right balance of both but your posts suggest to me that you have been around the trading block a few times and understand all of this.

By stomper - April 27, 2021, 5:59 p.m.
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Thanks for the kind response, mike. 

Yeah, I’ve traded since the 80’s (19, not 18) and am getting my sea legs underneath me after a multi-year absence. 

I know I’ve got discipline but human nature being what it is, sometimes I’m either weak or just plain stupid. Try not to make recurring mistakes. 

Someone just recently turned me on to Bollinger Bands and man, it has improved my success ratio. I also utilize stochastics, Fibonnaci, 9, 20, and 50 DMA’s, rsi and a couple of other things plus a healthy measure of horse sense. Can’t out think the algo’s, HFTraders, and quants, but mice can still thrive around the elephants.  I’d like to give a big “THANKS” to all the contributors who supply the multitudes of raw info, especially you, mike, for all the effort you expend for our edification and trading success. 

Be well and keep up the good fight. 

Hopefully I’ll be able to throw some meat into the stone soup occasionally. 

By wglassfo - April 27, 2021, 7:33 p.m.
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Do you worry about posters who post selling way to much 2020 corn to cheaply, after the deed is done???

By stomper - April 27, 2021, 7:38 p.m.
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Vegas folk say that farmers are some of their best customers. You gotta have it in your blood to do the risk-taking that farmers do each and every spring..

By mcfarmer - April 27, 2021, 9:12 p.m.
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Interesting. I can sit all winter with several bins full of grain unpriced but I couldn’t stand to bet a buck on a throw of the dice or spin of a wheel. I’ve never gambled  so much as a quarter in my life, never bought a lottery ticket.

I can’t stand being in the stock market but I will spend a couple hundred thousand dollars hoping to get a return at harvest. No federal crop insurance ever.

By wglassfo - April 27, 2021, 11:29 p.m.
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I have to tip my hat to you mcfarmer for no crop insurance

I always thought your crop insurance program was so good, nobody could turn down a gift horse, so to speak

We farm with out crop insurance also. Hail comes once or twice in a farmers career. If you can stand the hail damage the money saved on premiums "here" will more than make up for lost crop. Just put the premium money toward more cash payments for fert, seed etc. and before you know it you saved up 1/2 of your input costs. Low interest doesn't pay so much but a normal 8-10 % on operating loan adds up if you can pay at least 1/2. Some day inputs or interest will be back to normal

At least that method of saving money for input costs is how I taught my son and grand son to manage money

Casinos:  I am a sucker for the low stakes Texas Hold Em poker tables. Virus sort of stopped that expense. Yes expense as I generally loose

Had a full house Kings high and lost to a full house Ace's high. Went all in. Had to go buy more chips which I kept most of the second lot of chips

500.00 for a full table stake. So I lost 500.00 approx in one hand. Could not believe I had a losing hand

I play a lot of free poker sites that have free chips but real people behind the token players. At least that don't cost me anything

Love my Texas Hold EM poker

My brother plays a lot of real money tournaments but generally loses his shirt