NG 4/28/21+
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Started by WxFollower - April 28, 2021, 6:39 p.m.

 Here's a new NG thread. We're entering a tricky time of year as normal CDDs are rapidly catching up to and pretty soon will exceed normal HDDs.

 The 12Z Euro ens was an interesting illustration. It had a large increase in HDDs (~14), but this large colder change also resulted in a ~7 CDD drop. So, the net was still ~+7 total DDs and that appeared to bring NG back up 2 cents from daytime lows hit near the start of the 12Z Euro ens (from 2.936 to 2.956). So, even as late as we are now, HDDs can still at least support NG or even allow it to bounce like it just did.


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Re: NG 4/28/21+
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By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:16 a.m.
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Thank much Larry!

Previous thread on natural gas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67640/

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:17 a.m.
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No ‘Excitement’ Needed as May Nymex Natural Gas Contract Expires Above $2.90

 


Part of a broad move higher across commodities, natural gas futures recorded a third straight day of gains despite an uptick in production and moderate weather outlooks. The May Nymex gas futures contract rolled off the board at $2.925, up 5.2 cents from Tuesday’s close. June, which takes over the prompt-month position on Thursday, climbed… 

++++++++++++++++++++++

THURSDAY MORNING

Natural Gas Futures Pare Gains Ahead of Potentially Pivotal EIA Storage Data

 After rallying throughout the week, natural gas futures eased lower in early trading Thursday as traders awaited updated government inventory data, expected to show a lean increase in Lower 48 gas stocks. The June Nymex contract was down 2.4 cents to $2.936/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Predictions point to a leaner-than-average injection in the… 

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:18 a.m.
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https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs

The rig count. Up from the lowest of the last 10 years of 68 in July 2020 because of COVID last year but still well below the previous loftier levels. Was flat at 94 rigs reported last week. Wonder how Joe L is doing.

                                    


By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:21 a.m.
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Strong upward seasons going for a bit longer but waning up here.


Natural Gas: Seasonal Play Sets Up For Springtime Option Sellers | Seeking  Alpha

                                    


By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:22 a.m.
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Here's the very chilly temperatures from last week that caused an unusual amount of HDD's for this late in the year. This is the 7 day period for Thursdays EIA report.https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210423.7day.mean.F.gif


This was the previous week of temps and the EIA report that resulted:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67640/#68316

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67640/#68360

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:05 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 23, 2021   |  Released: April 29, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 6, 2021 

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html                                                                                                                                                                                +15 BCF bearish vs market expectations.                                                                                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(04/23/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region04/23/2104/16/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East319  325  -6  -6   404  -21.0  326  -2.1  
Midwest427  421  6  6   504  -15.3  412  3.6  
Mountain119  118  1  1   102  16.7  113  5.3  
Pacific217  210  7  7   217  0.0  210  3.3  
South Central816  810  6  6   974  -16.2  877  -7.0  
   Salt258  256  2  2   312  -17.3  278  -7.2  
   Nonsalt558  554  4  4   661  -15.6  599  -6.8  
Total1,898  1,883  15  15   2,200  -13.7  1,938  -2.1  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,898 Bcf as of Friday, April 23, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 15 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 302 Bcf less than last year at this time and 40 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,938 Bcf. At 1,898 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:09 p.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release   Apr 29, 2021    Actual 15B    Forecast 11B   Previous 38B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious






Apr 29, 2021 10:3015B11B38B
Apr 22, 2021 10:3038B49B61B
Apr 15, 2021 10:3061B67B20B
Apr 08, 2021 10:3020B21B14B
Apr 01, 2021 10:3014B21B-32B
Mar 25, 2021 10:30-36B-25B-11B


By metmike - April 29, 2021, 12:20 p.m.
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EIA Reports High-Side Natural Gas Storage Build; June Nymex Prices Slide

 The latest storage figure from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) came in on the high side of expectations Thursday, with the agency reporting a 15 Bcf injection into storage inventories for the week ending April 23. After three straight days in the green, natural gas futures retreated early in Thursday’s session and fell further… 

By WxFollower - April 30, 2021, 3:21 a.m.
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Will this heating season ever end? Both the Euro suite and GFS ens had HDD gains again vs 0Z that were significantly larger than the corresponding very small CDD losses. It is hard to know for sure, but it sure looked like NG was getting very solid support in the 2.880s to 2.890s for several hours starting from late morning followed by what appeared to be good short covering/buying just before and during pit close during the colder Euro op run.


Mike, any opinion about this?

 

By joelund - April 30, 2021, 12:15 p.m.
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15 Rigs running and I have 1.

Directors Cut4/15/2021







NDIC









Oil
M over M
M over MGasM over M
M over M

MthMthly cum
Bbls/ D
Mthly cum
Mcf/ D
2021Feb30,324,555-15%1,083,020-6%75,710,555-14%2,703,943-5%

Jan35,568,679-4%1,147,377-4%88,327,784-2%2,849,283-2%
2020Dec36,956,5041%1,192,145-3%89,680,1504%2,892,9080%

Nov36,736,201-3%1,224,2400%86,323,059-3%2,887,4020%

Oct37,909,0083%1,223,1070%89,083,2815%2,873,6542%

Sept36,649,9971%1,221,6675%84,453,3743%2,815,1127%

Aug36,126,49212%1,165,37112%81,692,74214%2,635,25014%

July32,304,50321%1,042,08117%71,375,12521%2,302,35617%

June26,703,2680%890,1094%59,198,681-1%1,973,2892%

May26,640,218-27%859,362-30%59,771,779-27%1,928,122-29%

April36,572,571-17%1,219,086-15%81,365,042-16%2,712,168-13%

March44,276,463
1,428,273
96,902,755
3,125,895











All time highs







Oil1,519,037Bbls/D11/30/19





Gas3,145,172Mcf/D11/30/19





Rig count218
5/29/2012
















Large drop in Jan/Feb more due to extreme cold...freeze ups, impassable roads etc.


Little accident during a rig move  eliminated my posting for a bit. Everything all right now.


By metmike - April 30, 2021, 12:46 p.m.
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Thanks Larry,

To be honest, I was not following ng last night because the weather in late April is rarely a factor, outside of extremes.

I'll comment more later but do see the increase in HDD's that you mentioned in recent runs.

I doubt that was a factor overnight, since the lows for this session were around 6:20 am Central just above 2.890, which as you noted earlier in the morning is very strong support.

From that low, we spiked up to the high of 2.962, just over 2 hours later and are right around mid range here before noon.

I don't have a strong feeling for where prices might go today.


The HDD and CDD are just too close. I know that you mentioned the HDD going up and CDD not going down which is an interesting, bullish dynamic right now.

The below average temps are all in the north and above average temps in the south, which will maximize the anomalies, especially at this time of year, when you still have lingering HDD's in the north..................with increasing, sometimes significant CDD's in the south.


By metmike - April 30, 2021, 12:54 p.m.
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Thanks Joe,

Here are Joe's recent reports, going back a year for a comparison. Wow, look at where we were 1 year ago today compared to his most recent report! 31 rigs running then and Joe had 4!

                Joelund ng reports "From the Bakken" 2020/21            

                                       Started by metmike - May 2, 2021, 5:25 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68818/                

By WxFollower - April 30, 2021, 2:51 p.m.
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 Just to clarify since I made that post late last night, I was comparing yesterday’s 12Z to yesterday’s 0Z. I should have said that then.

By metmike - April 30, 2021, 11:49 p.m.
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June Natural Gas Prices Recover as Bullish Momentum Lingers

 It took one day, but it appeared to have finally dawned on natural gas futures traders that the latest storage data was bullish after all. Though gains were small on Friday, the June Nymex gas futures contract recovered 2.0 cents day/day to settle at $2.931. The July contract ticked up 1.7 cents to hit $2.978.… 

By metmike - May 2, 2021, 5:20 p.m.
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Thanks for the clarification Larry!

With seasonal CDD's getting ready to pass up HDD's and both being seasonally low, only some sort of extreme weather anomaly at this time of year would make it even possible for weather to be clearly the main factor driving the market.


It can be the main factor with above average DD's added up, if the market decides to trade on that........... but never clearly at this time of year in the absence of it being an extreme anomaly. 

As a weather trader, I sure would not use it for the main reason to be in natural gas.

Unless, again it was something extreme.

There can be other NON weather reasons along with that of course to have a position in ng at this time of year. 

By metmike - May 3, 2021, 12:29 p.m.
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Futures Called Slightly Lower Early, but Further Upside Seen for Natural Gas Prices

 Natural gas futures hovered close to even in early trading Monday, with prices pausing after recent gains even as analysts pointed to further upside moving into the summer. The June Nymex contract was down 1.7 cents to $2.914/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Weather-driven demand expectations trended slightly higher over the weekend, with the forecast… 

By metmike - May 3, 2021, 7:55 p.m.
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June Natural Gas Futures Inch Higher Amid LNG Strength, Potential for Storage Depletion

 Natural gas futures advanced for a second consecutive session on Monday, as traders mulled weather-driven demand potential, continued strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes and the potential for light storage levels moving through the summer months.   The June Nymex contract advanced 3.5 cents day/day and settled at $2.966/MMBtu. July rose 3.6 cents to $3.014. Spot… 

By metmike - May 4, 2021, 1:40 p.m.
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Range-Bound Trading Said Likely as Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Higher Early

 Continuing to ride higher as summer nears, natural gas futures approached the technically and psychologically significant $3/MMBtu mark in early trading Tuesday. The June Nymex contract was up 2.2 cents to $2.988 at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Overnight colder changes to the forecast increased demand expectations for this weekend into next week, according to NatGasWeather.

By metmike - May 5, 2021, 3:25 a.m.
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June Natural Gas Futures Tread Water Before $3.00 Threshold; Cash Prices Climb

 June natural gas futures on Tuesday barely extended a win streak to three days as traders took profits and volume proved light while the prompt month tested technical resistance at the $3.00 level. Futures advanced over the course of April and early this month as supply/demand balances tightened. On Tuesday, the June Nymex contract eked… 

By metmike - May 5, 2021, 1:32 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Await ‘Bullish Catalyst’ as Prices Called Slightly Lower Early

 Coming off a range-bound trading session, and with the latest weather outlook offering little to excite bulls, natural gas futures hovered close to even early Wednesday. The June Nymex contract was off 1.3 cents to $2.954/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Based on the latest forecast data Bespoke Weather Services made a “marginal increase” to… 

By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:01 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending April 30, 2021   |  Released: May 6, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 13, 2021 

  +60 BCF slightly bullish vs expections

 Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(04/30/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region04/30/2104/23/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East332  319  13  13   421  -21.1  346  -4.0  
Midwest442  427  15  15   527  -16.1  429  3.0  
Mountain124  119  5  5   110  12.7  117  6.0  
Pacific224  217  7  7   227  -1.3  219  2.3  
South Central836  816  20  20   1,020  -18.0  908  -7.9  
   Salt264  258  6  6   329  -19.8  289  -8.7  
   Nonsalt572  558  14  14   691  -17.2  619  -7.6  
Total1,958  1,898  60  60   2,303  -15.0  2,019  -3.0  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,958 Bcf as of Friday, April 30, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 60 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 345 Bcf less than last year at this time and 61 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,019 Bcf. At 1,958 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:05 p.m.
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Temperatures from the 7 period ending last Friday for this weeks EIA report:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210430.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - May 6, 2021, 12:11 p.m.
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Bullish EIA Storage Print Nudges June Natural Gas Futures Higher

 Utilities injected 60 Bcf of natural gas into underground storage during the week ended April 30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday. The result came in bullish relative to analysts’ estimates, providing Nymex natural gas futures a modest bump. Temperatures were cooler throughout the Midwest during the covered week, fueling heating demand… 


metmike: CDD's, seasonally, will be passing up HDD's in several days. This is not the time of year when temperatures usually have a strong impact in determining prices

By metmike - May 7, 2021, 1:48 p.m.
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Thursday close:

June Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Fail to Find Footing Following Bullish EIA Storage Report

Natural gas futures slipped lower for a second consecutive session on Thursday, despite a bullish government inventory print and continued robust demand for both U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. The June Nymex contract fell 1.0 cent day/day and settled at $2.928/MMBtu. The contract lost 2.9 cents on Wednesday. July shed eight-tenths of… 

By metmike - May 7, 2021, 1:48 p.m.
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Above Normal Cooling Demand Seen Arriving by Late May as June Natural Gas Called Higher

 As updated forecasts hinted at higher cooling demand developing later in May, natural gas futures recovered the previous session’s losses in early trading Friday. After slipping 1.0 cents in Thursday’s trading, the June Nymex contract was up 1.3 cents to $2.941/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Based on the latest forecast data projections from Bespoke

By metmike - May 7, 2021, 9:43 p.m.
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With LNG Strength and Summer Demand Approaching, June Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back

 Natural gas futures rebounded on Friday, as traders absorbed a favorable storage report, continued robust export activity and the specter of stronger cooling demand on the near-term horizon. The June Nymex contract gained 3.0 cents day/day and settled at $2.958/MMBtu. July rose 3.0 cents to $3.004. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shed 1.5 cents to…