INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 5, 2018, 4:50 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, July 6, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1486.7K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1000.8K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 563.7K)



8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +195K; previous +223K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.8%; previous 3.8%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.92)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.3%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +5K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +218K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 62.7%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -43.6B; previous -46.20B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 211.25B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 257.44B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous -0.2%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2074B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +66B)

                       

  N/A              U.S. and China impose tariffs on each other's products



Monday, July 9, 2018  



10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 107.69)



                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +3.9%)



3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +9.26B)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7164.49 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 6855.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7164.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6956.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.42. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00. 



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,699.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 23,531.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,699.72. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 25,402.83. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 23,997.21. Second support is May's low crossing at 23,531.31.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 7/32's at 145-18.



September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, April's high crossing at 146-03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-03. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.      



September T-notes closed down 5-points at 120-095.



September T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.263 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.     



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed lower on Thursday as benchmark U.S. prices posted their lowest finish in just over a week, after data revealed a surprise run-up in domestic crude inventories, the first in a month. President Donald Trump’s recent demand that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries move to counteract a rally that has prices near 3 ½-year high also contributed to pressure on oil prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.59. 



August heating oil closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 219.13 would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 229.60. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.13. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is June's low crossing at 206.89. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 



August unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.935. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.821. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the reaction low crossing at 93.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.35.     



The September Euro closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 117.95 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 117.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.70. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3366 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3366. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3471. First support is June's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 



The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is June's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.16. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  



The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9167 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9167. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9044. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Thursday confirming Tuesday's key reversal up, which appears to have marked a short-term low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1286.80. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



September silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.550 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.201. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.550. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15.800. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625.        



August copper closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.04 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.04. First support is today's low crossing at 281.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 272.10.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down a 1/2-cent at 3.63 3/4. 



December corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/2 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat closed up 13-cents at 5.19 1/2. 



December wheat closed higher on Thursday's. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.96. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 18 1/4-cents at 5.24 1/2. 



December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.62. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 11 3/4-cents at 5.64 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 9 3/4-cents at 8.54 1/2. 



November soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 8.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.18 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.18. First support is today's low crossing at 8.54 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal closed down $1.90 at 323.50. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 340.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 331.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 340.70. First support is today's low crossing at 323.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil closed down 21-points. At 28.99. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.12. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $0.05 at $76.05. 



August hogs closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 80.55. First support is June's low crossing at 73.28. Second support is April's low crossing at 72.45.  



October cattle closed up $0.03 at 110.13. 



October cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 110.05. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50. 

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.23 at $152.57. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.06.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.  



September cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.00 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 22.64 is the next downside target.  



October sugar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.22 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.06 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - July 5, 2018, 7:13 p.m.
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Thanks Tallpine!