break downs? and the fed , and contrarian thoughts
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Started by bear - July 5, 2018, 4:58 p.m.

copper broke down.

iron ore looks like it is about to break down.

the dow looks like it is about to break down.

the pm group is at a critical junction.

the yeild curve is very flat.

so will the fed soon reverse course and lower rates?  

when everyone is convinced that the economy is expanding, and that the fed will keep raising rates...

maybe everyone is wrong.  

By wglassfo - July 5, 2018, 5:50 p.m.
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I don't understand what the Fed is trying to do

My understanding is

 the Fed wants to unload assets off their balance sheet and increase int rates at the same time??

If they actually do sell, does anybody know what assets and how much they own???

Would this asset selling combined with int rate hikes not be a market mover

Surely the Fed does not want to start a recession


What does the Fed do??

Maybe the contrarian though has merit

If I am incorrect in my understanding

Please correct me

I don't always have a complete grasp of this kind of stuff

By Richard - July 6, 2018, 10:06 a.m.
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it seems clear what the FED is trying to do. They want to slow the economy with an eye on oil. The FED is directing the orchestra with the players of Goldman, ECB, Saudi, etc... to engineer a dump in the oil market. it is not that oil will never see $100, it is that right now they want to squeeze the specs from the oil market and reduce the pace that oil is going up. I know they realize that the mid terms are in a few months but I think the real critical piece is the presidential elections in Nov 2020. I understanding is this, they want a slow down now and to bring oil prices down now so that they can reverse and move the economy forward in 2020 without fears that oil prices will be so high that they will not be able to do that. This is how I am seeing things. So with a slowing economy you could see a weaker USD and higher gold prices. But things that are economically sensitive may not do as well.

By metmike - July 6, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
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Thanks Richard!