INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 28, 2021, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 28, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +21.1%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. May Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (previous 72.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 88.3)

 

  

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 82.7)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.4%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 97.2)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. Annual Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization annual revision

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. April Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +2.6%)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the May 7th high crossing at 13,818.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,466.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 7th high crossing at 13,818.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,666.46.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the May 13th low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the May 13th low, May's high crossing at 4238.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4217.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4108.24. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25. Third support is the March 25th low crossing at 3843.25.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the decline off May's high, the March 30th low crossing at 153-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-19. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the May 13th low crossing at 155-14. Second support is the March 30th low crossing at 153-29.



June T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the May 17th high crossing at 132.215 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.045 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.001. Second resistance is the May 17th high crossing at 132.215. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.045. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at 131.185. Third support is the April 5th low crossing at 130.255. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it renewed the rally off last-November's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $69.69 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $61.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the April 22nd low crossing at $60.55. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $67.45. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $69.69. First support is the April 22nd low crossing at $60.55. Second support is April's low crossing at $57.63.



July heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the May 12th high high crossing at $2.0777 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1.9471 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 12th high crossing at $2.0777. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9163. Second support is the April-26th low crossing at $1.8371.



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Friday's low, May's high crossing at $2.2045 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0382 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at $2.2045. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0382. Second support is the April-26th low crossing at $1.9528.



July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.015 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.879 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is May's high crossing at 3.204. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.903 Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.879.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.31. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.



The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $123.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing near $121.51. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $120.58.

 

The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4085 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.4235. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4245. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4085. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3929.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1086 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1203. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1086. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at 1.0923.

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $83.25. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.47. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at $80.95.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline that marked a downside breakout of May's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the May 7th high crossing at 0.092325 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.090920. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1945.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $1913.30. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1945.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1884.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1850.20.



July silver was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.574 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.574. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $26.780. 



July copper was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's rally, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3535 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.4440. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.3535.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends Thursday's limit up rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $5.76 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.66. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $5.76 1/2.        



July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.02 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's low, the 75% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.36 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.02 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of April's rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.33 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.33 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.55 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.33 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.07 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.68 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-rally crossing at $6.55 3/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.57 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.83 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.57 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the April-28th low crossing at $14.90 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.83 3/4.

 

July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally  crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $398.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $378.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.     


July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this year's rally, the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 64.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 70.49. Second resistance is the March-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 71.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at 64.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.70.   

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.30 at $116.70. 



July hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $117.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $121.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.51.  



August cattle closed up $0.10 at $119.43. 



August cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. If August extends last-week's rally, May's high crossing at $122.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.80. Second resistance is April's  high crossing at $124.45. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $117.95. Second support is April's low crossing at $115.92. 



August Feeder cattle closed down $2.35 at $152.85. 


August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday due to soaring gain prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $159.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $157.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $159.71. First support is the May 20th low crossing at $150.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $150.03. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.               



July cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target. If July renews this month's rally, the March 11th high crossing at 26.21 is the next upside target.               



July sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.34 is the next downside target.     



July cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the April 13th low crossing at 81.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - May 28, 2021, 11:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!


Weather....... Still bullish but with uncertainy, long weekend.......high risk.  Heat ridge building early June.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69635/


Hogs....stomper...potential reversal day in the grains wednesday. Confirmed with sharply higher prices today on thursday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69552/


natural gas....EIA report was MEGA bearish! Supplies are gushing in with the increased rig count. However, heat ridge in early June is bullish.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69687/


Hurricanes.........Jim, WeatherFollower

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70012/


deficits/inflation...Wayne

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69851/


Weather, rains/grains......Jim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69781/


USDA crop conditions:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69901/


2012 weather/drought compared to 2021....much different

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69734/



Funds in grains

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69891/


Exports 5-24-21+....huge for corn

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69889/


Crop progress from the field

cutworm-Southeast IN

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69628/

Wayne-Southwest Ontario, Canada

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69629/


US loss of confidence...Wayne, others

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69582/


Inflation-Tim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69649/



Week in review compilation.........Tim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69755/


Joe Lund NG reports from the field

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68818/