I firmly agree that Biden has done very poorly with the US/MX border issue. Actually, I feel it is near the worst of anything he has handled imo and have said so.
However, I had just been thinking about how the 2 hurricanes Eta and Iota just 2 weeks apart had EACH so devastated Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and vicinity with epic rains in November. I mean Eta, itself, was historic and yet Iota came to the same area soon after and it was historic on its own!
Then I was wondering: is it possible that that was a major factor in the massive increase in migrants/illegal aliens coming north into the US in 2021? Well, I did some research and found out that it, indeed, was a major factor. I'm not at all excusing Biden for handling this poorly, but I am saying that it wasn't only due to Biden getting slack as there really was a true humanitarian crisis of epic proportions:
Thanks Larry,
Here is the main thread discussing those hurricanes and especially the affects on the price of coffee.
Tropics 10/29+
17 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 29, 2020, 8:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60533/
I agree that this natural disaster would definately cause MANY more people to become homeless and/or suffer in that part of Central America. Certainly well into the 6 figures of people at the time.
The question then, is what is the correct way to address this in the United States?
There are numerous natural disasters around the world every year........ earthquakes, hurricanes, droughts, floods, tsunami's, volcano's and so on. These affect tens of millions of people every year.
This one was pretty unique and close enough for people to walk to the US from Central America. Does this mean that future droughts, floods, hurricanes or earthquakes in Mexico or Central America will result in, those people, eventually numbering into the tens of millions should pack their bags and come to the US........... instead of the US providing humanitarian aid and assistance for them in their own countries?
This was a very astute observation by you Larry!
Let's try to learn more about this.
29 November 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55064560
Mar. 25, 2021 02:08PM EST
https://www.ecowatch.com/central-america-hurricanes-climate-refugees-2651211219.html
When back-to-back hurricanes struck Central America last November, families in the region were already facing a food shortage, violence and economic decline from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Four months later, people affected by Hurricanes Eta and Iota are struggling to recover, and the impacts of the storms are just beginning to be felt by agriculture communities, prompting some experts to link climate change to the recent surge in migrants arriving at the US-Mexico border, Vox reported.
"The hurricanes were... the last in the series of what was a devastating year," Meghan López, the International Rescue Committee's regional vice president for Latin America, told CNN. "To have the pandemic on top of that, to have aid to the region cut, all of these things create this pressure cooker where there's no escape valve... And the only escape valve is to try to flee the terrible situation people are living in... People are making desperate decisions."
The hurricanes left "200 people dead and another 5.3 million people in need of assistance, including more than 1.8 million children," according to UNICEF, Vox reported. They also came at the same time as harvest, causing some regions to lose 40 percent of corn crops and 65 percent of bean crops.
"(Hurricane) Eta – plus the pandemic – left us with nothing," a Honduran father told CNN, after being deported by U.S. authorities to Reynosa, Mexico.
When major storms have hit the region in the past, farmers tended to move to urban areas for better employment opportunities, said Kayly Ober, a senior advocate and program manager for the Climate Displacement Program at Refugees International. Yet due to the pandemic, these same opportunities haven't been available, Vox reported.
The pandemic is also limiting opportunities at the border, where an increasing amount of unaccompanied minors are being held beyond legal limits in facilities because the Department of Health and Human Services has run out of space to house people, CNN reported.
In the U.S., political leaders are struggling to determine the best approach to solving the border crisis. "Politically, it's never the "right time" for immigration reform," Veronica Escobar, a Democratic representative from El Paso, Texas, wrote in a recent opinion piece published in The New York Times. "The good news is that we now have an administration willing to work on the issue."
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that Vice President Kamala Harris would lead the way in addressing immigration issues on the southern border. Harris' approach will focus on slowing the flow of migrants by determining "the root causes" of why people are coming north in the first place, POLITICO reported.
While running for president, Biden "proposed spending $4 billion over four years to tackle violence, climate change and government corruption in the Northern Triangle region — comprised of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras," POLITICO reported. Ober told Vox that the Biden administration is putting too much emphasis on stopping migrants from coming north, rather than viewing it "with a humanitarian lens."
Other experts have criticized the U.S. for its lack of international aid, leaving migrants with no other choice but to come north. "Many families have nothing to go back to and are now left with little options to survive," Laurent Duvillier, a spokesperson for UNICEF's Latin America and Caribbean regional office, told Vox. "Unless more humanitarian support is provided to Central American countries affected by these tropical storms, unless conditions are created in communities for people to be able to stay, it is expected that more families will migrate north in search for a better future for their children."
The exact same thing happened with hurricane Mitch in 1998. Mitch created far more homeless people in Central America and it appears that the influx of people into the US back then was a tiny fraction compared to today.
Interesting to read about the description of the events and affects and how the Clinton administration handled it.
https://migration.ucdavis.edu/mn/more.php?id=1721
The INS in Texas reported that more Central Americans are being detained. In Laredo, for example, 583 "other than Mexican" (OTM) foreigners were apprehended in December 1998, compared to 123 in December 1997. The INS projected 4,000 OTM apprehensions in January 1999.
US officials are bracing for a large influx of Central Americans. The INS predicted that the number of Central Americans apprehended on the US-Mexico border will reach 4,000 in January 1999, a record high for a single month. INS Commissioner Doris Meissner said the INS wants "to do everything we can to avert a mass migration...Frankly, one of the best ways of influencing the information [going back to Central Americans] is if some people do start to come here and are returned quickly. That message goes back much more effectively than the formal channels of communication that we have in our hands."
Many Central Americans reportedly believe that the US has offered Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to all Central American victims of Hurricane Mitch. In fact, only those already in the US on December 30, 1998 are protected, but mass media in Central America reportedly said that the US was providing work permits for Hondurans and Nicaraguans hurt by Mitch. Some Hondurans setting out for the US are carrying letters of recommendation from local mayors or priests attesting that they lost their homes and verifying their good character and willingness to work hard in the US.
Hondurans and Nicaraguans in the US on December 30, 1998 are eligible to apply for TPS until July 5, 2000 due to the environmental disaster and substantial disruption of living conditions caused by Hurricane Mitch and because Honduras and Nicaragua officially have requested that it be granted TPS designation. Hondurans and Nicaraguans must apply before July 5, 1999 for TPS.
Migrant advocates are divided on whether to advise illegal Central Americans to apply for TPS. By applying, Central Americans make themselves known to the INS, and some fear that the INS may move to deport Central Americans after TPS expires. Others urge clients to apply for TPS so that they can get work permits and better jobs; they also believe that TPS may be extended, and that, in any case, there is unlikely to be a deportation campaign after TPS expires.
Effects of Low-Skilled Immigration on U.S. Natives:Evidence from Hurricane Mitch
I believe that this applies to people already here, so that they don't get deported back to their home country. TPA, Temporary Protected Status.
Temporary Protected Status: Origins, Criteria, and Current Use
Congress created TPS in 1990 to establish a uniform system for granting temporary protection to people unable to return to their home countries because of a political or environmental catastrophe. Before 1990, the executive branch dealt with this scenario by designating certain countries for Extended Voluntary Departure (EVD), an administrative status that amounted to an exercise of prosecutorial discretion by the Attorney General not to pursue nationals of certain countries for removal if found to be living in the United States without authorization. However, there were no established criteria explaining how a country might qualify for EVD, and critics alleged that decisions regarding the grant of EVD to nationals of a particular country were often politically motivated. This argument became especially prominent in the late 1980s, when the Reagan administration decided not to designate El Salvador for EVD despite the country’s ongoing civil war.
Sources say a final decision is expected only after Joe Biden takes office as US president on January 20.
The incoming Biden administration is considering a plan to shield more than a million immigrants from Honduras and Guatemala from deportation after the countries were battered by hurricanes in November, three people familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency.
US President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team is weighing whether to grant them Temporary Protected Status (TPS). The programme allows people already in the United States at the time of the designation to stay and work legally if their home countries have been affected by natural disasters, armed conflicts or other events that prevent their safe return. The designations last six to 18 months and can be renewed.
January 26, 2021
February 11, 2021
https://thetablet.org/catholic-leaders-tps-central-americans-storm/
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/14/politics/us-mexico-border-arrests-june-decade/index.html
"They encountered around 188,800 migrants in June, up from 180,034 in May, enough to bring the fiscal year total so far to more than 1 million Customs and Border Protection encounters. That's more than in recent years, including 2019, which was labeled a "humanitarian catastrophe" as the number of families and unaccompanied children arriving at the border spiked."
So, fiscal 2021 (Oct 2020-Sep 2021) is well on its way to becoming the highest in encounters since the year 2000:
http://crimmigration.com/2021/03/23/border-patrol-apprehensions-1925-2020/
The devastating flooding from the November hurricanes Eta and Iota working in combo with the lowered border strictness of the Biden Admin vs Trump is the main reason for the huge increase.
Quiz: under which POTUS since Ford have these encounters averaged the lowest?
is it true to answer that question all we have to do is find the lowest storm total?
mc,
<G> funny.
My feeling is that the number of encounters is primarily determined by a combo of 3 different factors:
1. Strictness of border policy. More come if less strict.
2. How the US is doing economically…more come if strong US economy
3. Level of recent wx and other disasters in Central America. More come when there are bad disasters.
I strongly agree with Larry.
#1 is clearly the biggest factor in 2021 as it flipped from contributing negatively to going very positive.
#2 will always be a huge factor as the economic disparity is the entire reason for immigrants to come here.........for a better life. This actually is the biggest factor overall, that can sort of be superimposed with a constant......that might vary from year to year but if they can make 10 times more money, instead of 8 times more money in the US vs Central America isn't a make or break deal.......with the exception of economic collapses in the homeland. Whether you can just get by or whether you are starving to death is a make or break deal for these people.
3. Natural disasters like hurricanes or massive flooding, which occur maybe 1 or 2 years every 2 decades can leapfrog to the front of this list following an event like that.
The number of July US Border Patrol encounters was near 200K, which exceeded the already very high June level by over 10% to make it the single highest for any month in 20 years:
Southwest Land Border Encounters | U.S. Customs and Border Protection (cbp.gov)
This brings fiscal year 2021 to 1,276,194 with 2 months left. The record high back to 1925 for any full fiscal year is 1986's 1,692,444 followed by 2000's 1,676,438, 1999's 1,579,010, 1998's 1,555,776, 1996's 1,549,876, and 1997's 1,412,953. Projecting ahead tells us that 2021 will almost certainly end up ahead of 1997 and that it has a good chance to exceed 1999 to make it at least the new 3rd highest. It will even have a shot at exceeding 1986 for a new record year. However, that would require a slight increase over July for the last 2 months:
BP Total Apps FY1925-FY2019 (cbp.gov)
CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2021 | U.S. Customs and Border Protection
The increase of 2021 FY YTD over full FY 2020 is already by far the largest increase from year to year with it at ~870K and headed to well over a million. Prior to this, the largest increases in one year were 455K in 2019, 430K in 1986, and 306K in 1953.
The huge 2021 increase is due to a combination of factors (not necessarily in this particular order) such as the widespread devastating C. American flooding from Nov. 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota, Biden's less strict handling of the border vs Trump, 2020 being held down due to Covid, and the strengthening US economy in 2021.
Thanks Larry!
That number is incredibly high. Great topic to have here.
I remember back when Gunter was constantly giving us timely updates on this and was our key, reliable source for information about it......for a couple of years.
We have nearly 1.3 m illegals {subtract a few for legit reasons}, many with what the msm calls daily a deadly pandemic and your thought is ":Biden is less strict at the boarder"....ok
Now the position is that illegal immigrants are not vaccinated and are bringing in COVID because of it.
And guess who the ones screaming the loudest are?
The very outspoken anti COVID vaccination crowd.
Go figure but I listened to FOX and read other right sources. That's exactly where its coming from.
In today's world, whatever they say/print............becomes the opinions of their viewers/readers. Goes for the left too.
100+ million people refusing to get vaccinated, many ..............squawking because 1 million illegal aliens are not vaccinated(might have COVID).
I actually get this position totally. But I'm PRO COVID vaccine and its consistent with what I believe.
However, if somebody is worried about illegal aliens spreading COVID so much, on a tiny scale, they should at least recognize their OWN behavior that's causing it to spread on a massive scale.
200,000 illegal aliens breaking in at the southern border and objective, open minded WxFollower is the one that brings up the topic, not republicans?
Wow man. The party has changed in 2021!
No other opinions on this?
Let's get back to the truth and doing the right/best thing for our country as defining elements of being republicans....like it used to be.
I have posts here on the boarder. My stance has not changed. Until big gov gets serious about the boarder they are not serious about covid. Said the same thing before. You can take that same argument and apply it to all the idiots protesting, burning, looting, rioting, stealing and raping. Until big gov quits calling them "mostly peaceful" and gets serious about them they are not serious bout covid. So what's the course? Stop the spread or force little 5 to 7 year olds to wear some stupid mask all day?
Thanks mcfarm!
Yes, I realize what your position in the past was on the border.
But since the election, the extreme right, at several sources is manufacturing the narratives and TELLING most republicans what to think.
1. First it was that Biden stole the election from Trump...the big lie.
2. Biden and Fauci and big government are trying to control you with COVID vaccines.....so they don’t work and they are dangerous and they are gene therapy with long term side affects....another big lie.
3. Making you get vaccinated and wear a mask is taking away your God given right to choose what you do with your own body and violates your freedom and is just the beginning and part of the plan for the Democrats to take away all of our individual rights. It’s not really to fight COVID. COVID is nothing more than a bad case of the flu and the CDC and all the doctors are manipulating all the statistics to inflate numbers to fool us.....so they can take complete control of our lives.
4. The unbelievable invasion of illegal immigrants which should be shocking everybody is being spun to be a COVID invasion to try to use COVID against Biden like the dems did against Trimp.
Please tell me which of the narratives above don’t define the new Republican Party in 2021,,,based on the extreme right sites derermining the narratives?
speaking of big lies....should we be calling this temporary treatment for virus that will always be here a vaccine?
Exactly my point mcfarm.
They don’t want you to think of it as a vaccine....even though that’s exactly what it is....like the flu vaccine.
They have people like Gunter convinced it’s gene therapy and I finally proved to him that its not to change our DNA.
This has been twisted as....not a fight against COVID but a fight against big government taking control of us.....and we must resist at any cost....even, sadly at a real world cost of tens of thousands of unvaccinated lives.
But at the border, they ironically twisted COVID to be extremely dangerous and THOSE people needing to be vaccinated to protect us.....even though Americans themselves don’t need to be vaccinated.
It’s all just being twisted like a pretzel to have a distorted political meaning......that contradicts the science and medicine and data.
But there is a MAJOR crisis at the border....not because of COVID, even though COVID makes it worse.
through out this covid mess I have kept an article on my desk. Its explains the "limitations of accuracy" theory. That any solution is only as accurate as its least accurate input. This is where todays world as gone crazy. Both sides have shaded things. The lie crowd, the big gov crowd, the expert crowd on virus, the racists blm'ers and CRT'ers. Some people actually looking for the truth and some looking to shade the truth.
It sounds like a great article mcfarm. Any chance to send it?
Much of our world revolves around convincing sounding narratives often based on manufactured realities(some true some false) meant to persuade people(brainwash them) to follow the ideology of the manipulator.
Sadly, it's becoming increasingly difficult for most people to discern between the true reality and the false one.
People frequently use their natural instincts....... their cognitive bias..............believing what they WANT to be true and not believing what they want to be false.
A federal judge has ordered the Biden administration to reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" policy that had been put in place by the Trump administration, stating that President Biden's White House had acted "arbitrarily and capriciously" in ending the program.
As CBS News reported, U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk said in his ruling on Friday that the Biden administration had violated procedural laws and failed to see "several of the main benefits" of the Remain in Mexico policy, also known as the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP).
In June, the Biden administration formally ended Trump's immigration policy, which required asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico as their cases awaited trial in the U.S.
Biden suspended the program on his first day in office.
The lawsuit resulting in Kacsmaryk's decision had been brought forward by Texas and Missouri. Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, stayed his decision for a week in order to give the Biden administration time to appeal it, CBS noted.
In his ruling, Kacsmaryk, stated that Texas and Missouri were being harmed by the Biden administration's decision to end the MPP, as migrants released into the U.S. would use the country's health care system, apply for driver's licenses and send their children to U.S. schools.
Last week, it was reported that the number of attempted border crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border had reached the highest numbers seen since 2000, with more than 212,000 people attempting to cross the border in July.
"It is critical that intending migrants understand clearly that they will be turned back if they enter the United States illegally and do not have a basis for relief under our laws," Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told reporters.