Mike, Thursday night
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Started by mcfarmer - June 6, 2021, 6:07 p.m.

I see the NWS has given us a 50% chance of rain for Thursday night.

Is that some sort of computer generated thing since this is Sunday evening or does it really mean a possibility of relief ?

By metmike - June 6, 2021, 6:48 p.m.
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Looks like its computer generated along with the actual meteorologists maybe fine tuning a bit. Not entirely sure.

This was the forecast discussion for the NWS offices in your area:



By mcfarmer - June 6, 2021, 7:30 p.m.
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By metmike - June 6, 2021, 7:51 p.m.
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Yes, me too.

The comments I linked you too were from that NWS office along with the one from Des Moines.

That's the best we can do in assessing what their thoughts/forecast philosophy is.

My guess is that the front coming under a heat ridge will not be very productive and will not produce widespread rains for your area. 

But you never know. There will be plenty of moisture and late afternoon heating could generate a big line of storms that make it to your area, ahead of the front.....but the front comes thru early in the morning which is not the best time.

So that 50% seems very generous to me.