KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, June 16, 2021    

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 645.4)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.1%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 262.1)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.3%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 2869.2)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.1%)

8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (expected 1.63M; previous 1.569M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +3.9%; previous -9.5%)

                       Building Permits (expected 1.73M; previous 1.76M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected -1.7%; previous +0.3%)

8:30 AM ET. May Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.7%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +1.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 474.029M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.241M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.026M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +7.046M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 137.214M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.412M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.3%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.713M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.427M)

2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections

                       Median Fed Funds Rate – 2020

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 0.1%)

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 0.1%)

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 0.1%)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

                       Federal Funds Rate

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.25)

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.00)

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 11)

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)

                       Discount Rate (previous 0.25)

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)

                       Discount Rate-Range High

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

Thursday, June 17, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 216K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 120.7K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 835.8K)

8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (expected 30.0; previous 31.5)

                       Prices Paid (previous 76.8)

                       Employment (previous 19.3)

                       New Orders (previous 32.5)

                       Prices Received (previous 41.0)

                       Delivery Times (previous 41.5)

                       Inventories (previous 25.6)

                       Shipments (previous 21.0)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 360K; previous 376K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3499000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -258K)

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.6%)

                       Leading Index (previous 113.3)

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2411B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

Friday, June 18, 2021   

10:00 AM ET. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at Brookings Institution event on

                        carbon price floors

Monday, June 21, 2021   

8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.24)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.07)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,693.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14,155.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,878.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,693.95.

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4162.77 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4258.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4196.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4162.77.    

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-28. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158-06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-04.  

September T-notes were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.034 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.146. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.034.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $72.83. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $70.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.06.

July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0771 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0771. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9909.  

July unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1601 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2365. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1601. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0976.

July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.090 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.369. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.171. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.090.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.62 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.09 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.62. Second resistance is the May 5^th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.

The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.29 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $122.02. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.29. Second support is the May 13^th low crossing at $120.58.

The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4655 is the next upside target.Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4073 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 1.4253. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4655. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4073. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4014.

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 4th low crossing at 1.1073 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1261 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1231. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1261. First support is the June 4^th low crossing at 1.1073. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1060.

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, last-Thursday's low crossing at $81.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.66 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.66. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $81.00.  

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090305 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091735 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092139. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093121. First support is the June 3^rd low crossing at 0.090705. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090305.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1830.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1888.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1845.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1830.00.

July silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 3^rd low crossing at $27.090 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the June 3^rd low crossing at $27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.055. 

July copper was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.5950 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7070. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.3060. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.   

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

July corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.50. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4.        

July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May 18^th high crossing at $7.18 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18^th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.49. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.

July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18^th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.

July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.28.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the April 13^th low crossing at $13.74 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.29 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $14.58. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $13.74 3/4.

July soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $389.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $389.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $407.80. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50.    

July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.67. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 68.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.82. Second support is the April 26^th low crossing at 58.46.    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

July hogs closed up $0.28 at $118.50. 

July hogs closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.97. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.66.  

August cattle closed up $2.62 at $123.90. 

August cattle closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned  rally, April's high crossing at $124.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $124.13. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $124.45. First support is May's low crossing at $114.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.92. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $2.23 at $156.83. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at $158.73. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $157.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $158.73. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $146.75. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.62 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.             

July cocoa posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target.                 

July sugar closed lower on Tuesday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 16.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target.      

July cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target.