INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 17, 2021, 8:11 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, June 17, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 216K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 120.7K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 835.8K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (expected 30.0; previous 31.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 76.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment (previous 19.3)

 



 

 

                       New Orders (previous 32.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 41.0)

 



 

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 41.5)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 25.6)

 



 

 

                       Shipments (previous 21.0)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 360K; previous 376K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -9K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3499000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -258K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (previous 113.3)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2411B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +98B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, June 18, 2021   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at Brookings Institution event on

 

                        carbon price floors

 



 

 

Monday, June 21, 2021   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.24)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.07)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,698.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 14,155.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,910.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,698.85.



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4165.11 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4258.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4199.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4165.11.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 159-28. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 157-09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-13.  



September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 131.222 as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the April-29th low crossing at 130.235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 132.123 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is the reaction low  crossing at 130.315. Second support is the April-29th low crossing at 130.235.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $72.99. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $70.71. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.48.



July heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0812 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0812. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9964.  



July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1015 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2365. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1015. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.0322.



July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.101 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.369. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.193. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.101.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $91.94. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.22 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $91.94. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.22.



The September Euro was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.85. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $119.56. Second support is the the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.83.

 

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1.3810 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4134 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4134. Second resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 1.4253. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3936. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.3810.



The September Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0926 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1150 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1150. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0926. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854.

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $79.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the overnight low crossing at $80.99. Second support is April's low crossing at $79.06.  



The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091709 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.091331. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091709. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.090290. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1884.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1884.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1795.70. Second support is the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80.



July silver was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the April 29th low crossing at $25.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.852 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is the overnight low crossing at $26.525. Second support is the April 29th low crossing at $25.75. 



July copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.5950 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7070. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.2660. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was sharply lower overnight as scattered showers moved across portions of Iowa overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4.        



July wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.88 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.49. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.30 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.45 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.30 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the April 13th low crossing at $13.74 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $14.23 1/2. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $13.74 3/4.

 

July soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $388.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $388.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $407.30. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50.    


July soybean oil was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.94. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.65. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31.    

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $3.00 at $115.50. 



July hogs closed limit down on Wednesday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is today's low crossing at $115.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.88.  



August cattle closed up $1.02 at $124.93. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned  rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.49 would signal that a top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.49. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.62. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.88 at $157.70. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at $158.73. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $158.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $158.73. First support is Monday's gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $146.75. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.67 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.              



July cocoa closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.51 is the next downside target.                  



July sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 16.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target.      



July cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target.            

Comments
By metmike - June 17, 2021, 12:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Tropical storm Claudette

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71126/


Crop condition drop more than expected  -4% corn......-5% beans.....-1% wheat but very bearish wx is more important

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71015/


Weather.....turned very bearish grains over the weekend and continues.......also bearish with cooler temps..

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/


USDA last week

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70763/


Exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71001/


Natural Gas..........very strange storage dynamic shown by WxFollower playing havic with prices, TS in the Gulf coming up and questions about how much heat as we go into early July. EIA released was???  Weather is?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/


Global Oil, gas and coal reserves and sources

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70824/


mcfarmer needs rain in Iowa!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70968/


CPI vs CPE

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70968/


Producers and their crops....thanks for the reports from the fields

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70437/


Gold/oil ratio........bear

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71087/