Ocean Warming and Future Warming”
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Started by metmike - June 20, 2021, 12:50 a.m.

I'm obviously biased but believe that Dr. Spencer is the most qualified person on the planet to teach/discuss climate change/global warming! Great 40 minute discussion for anybody that wants to learn a few things from a top authority. I was surprised that he threw in a negative jab about Fauci science......ok, now we just inspired a couple more people here to listen (-:

ICCC-14 Preview, Ep. 4: Roy Spencer on “What Recent Ocean Warming Suggests About Future Warming”


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/19/iccc-14-preview-ep-4-roy-spencer-on-what-recent-ocean-warming-suggests-about-future-warming/

"In our fourth in this series, streamed live on June 17, Roy Spencer, Ph.D., principal research scientist for the University of Alabama in Huntsville, gives a sneak peek of his presentation at The Heartland Institute’s 14th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-14) on Oct. 15-17 in Las Vegas. In this preview, Spencer discussed “What Recent Ocean Warming Suggests About Future Global Warming.”

 The warming predicted by the latest climate models in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 averages close to 4C. Using an updated model – and even assuming all warming has been due to human activity – Spencer and a colleague suggest that future warming is likely to turn out much lower. In fact, even if we don’t reduce human carbon dioxide emissions, the world may still hit the United Nations’ stated goal of keeping warming at no more than 1.5C by the end of the century."

Comments
By metmike - June 20, 2021, 1:05 a.m.
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There are always some interesting comments below  the articles on WUWT, sometimes with links to authentic data that I use/store in my archives.


I made a few myself that you might enjoy:

    Mike Maguire                      

        June 19, 2021 6:51 am                

Remember when the critical upper  threshold temperature was 2.0 deg. C ?

They  only lowered it down to 1.5 deg.C because we weren’t warming fast enough for it to be a crisis/emergency that requires urgent/Immediate political actions to address.

This  proves that they will adjust the science so that it best meets the political objective.

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    Mike Maguire               

        June 19, 2021 11:59 am                

Dr. Spencer is in an elite league of his own for being able to communicate accurate, knowlegible, understandable, objective  and believable climate science like no other person on the planet……..nobody.
The  world is  blessed to have a person with his impeccable character willing to represent authentic science in spite of the constant attacks directed at him from flawed mainstream science!!

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    Mike Maguire

                

        

            

    

                Reply to             leitmotif        

        June 19, 2021 3:40 pm

        

Pretty funny leitmotif,
His undergrad schooling at the University Michigan in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science(Ann Arbor) was 3 years before I graduated with the same degree……..so I barely missed knowing him personally.
Being much smarter than me, he went on to more academic training at the University of Wisconsin,  then much greater things………I went into television meteorology. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Spencer_(scientist)

However, I did graduate with and know this guy, Jeff Masters:

https://lsa.umich.edu/umbs/news-events/all-events.detail.html/30830-3794861.html

Jeff, also was much smarter than me and went on to a noteworthy career. I see that he has made some major career changes recently. In case you don’t know much about him, if he commented here, he would likely receive more red votes than greens from people at this site.

My last 2 years at the U of M featured many of the same classes as Jeff. He and another guy, who’s name escapes me had an esoteric manner  of greeting each other and with communicating ………….whistling……..to the tune of “If I only had a brain” from the Wizard of Oz.
That particular tune only got traction in our weather obsessed minds  because it connected with the movie that featured the most famous tornado we knew of growing up……..the one that took Dorothy from Kansas to the land of Oz!

I’m currently moderator at a commodities trading forum and chess coach at 5 schools. Just a nobody……..but not to the 3,500 of kids that played chess for me the past 25 years! We had to suspend chess this past year because of COVID.

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    Mike Maguire

                 June 19, 2021 3:43 pm

        This is the latest on Jeff.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/jeff-masters-bob-henson-to-post-regularly-for-ycc/
I only know him today, the same way that you do.

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    Mike Maguire

                       Reply to             SAMURAI        

        June 19, 2021 4:53 pm

        I agree that there is a strong connection with oceanic temperature cycles/variations but am not very confident that this one has the 30/60 year regularity that we have assumed. You stated that the PDO index shows the PDO will soon reenter its 30 year cool cycle and that means global temps will soon fall.
However, the PDO was negative to even strongly negative much of the time from late 1998 to 2013,  a 15 year period. There is every reason to believe that this was associated with the pause or slow down in global warming and we also had more La Nina’s…..no coincidence.

 Then the PDO spiked back to strongly positive/positive for several years, that featured the super El Nino and spike up in global warming.  We’ve actually been back in -PDO territory for over a year now and by no coincidence have recently experienced a La Nina and a bit of global cooling.

It’s possible that the cycle was around 60 years for 2 consecutive cycles(if we were measuring with enough accuracy over a century ago) and then, just assumed that the periodicity, must be 60 years because we didn’t have more cycles than those 2 to go from. The recent shift to 15 years of -PDO, then the sudden ++PDO for several years should give us pause to stay open minded enough to be ready to adjust what we think that we know about this cycle/index based on the most recent data and not let past assumptions get in the way of learning new things.
There is no question that a +PDO regime favors more El Nino’s that belch out more warmth from the biggest heat storing entity on the planet and a -PDO, like we have now, favors more cooler tropical Pacific water La Nina’s which do the exact opposite.   

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

Here’s the latest update from NOAA on the current state of ENSO.The models slightly lean towards bringing  back a weak La Nina again later this year. I’m no modeling expert but would say the -PDO is a factor. It also means that a new global temperature monthly record high anomaly is unlikely for the rest of the year. When that happens without the assistance of  an El NIno, it will take awhile for the baseline warming to catch up to the previous record spike highs, from the El Nino…… which is more evidence that the warming must be pretty slow.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

By metmike - June 20, 2021, 2:53 p.m.
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Just a reminder of where the latest global temperature is:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70301/

By metmike - June 20, 2021, 2:55 p.m.
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Gunter made a great observation related to ocean temperatures here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70927/

By metmike - June 20, 2021, 6:32 p.m.
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    Mike Maguire

        

                Reply to             Tom Abbott        

        June 20, 2021 3:02 pm

Thanks Tom.
You’re my kind of guy!

 Wonderful Chess Tournament                14 responses |  
        Started by metmike – March 2, 2020, 4:17 p.m.  
   
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/48387/

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 Mike Maguire

                  Reply to             SAMURAI        

        June 20, 2021 3:00 pm

      Sam,
Sorry your first reply vanished but thanks for being persistent. The Pacific seems screwed up but only based on our expectations. Maybe if we had accurate measurements going back 2,000+ years, this screwed up pattern might have been recorded enough times for it to be considered a normal part of the PDO variation. How can we possibly know if this is an anomaly that never happened before or some thing that happens every couple hundred years?
Thanks for adding the 20 year +PDO from 1978-98 that I forget to mention(after mainly 30 year periods between +PDO and -PDO). This being followed by 15 years of -PDO(1998-2013), I think resulted in speculation that maybe the periodicity was shortening. But the very brief period of +PDO and strong El Nino following that, which has reversed back to -PDO has scientists trying to make sense of it………..so I really liked your quote “Truth is the daughter of time” 

Proof of that is shown today with so many wrong assumptions about global warming/climate change from decades ago that continue to be used…………causing an increase in divergence between modeling projections and observations because of applying the principle of “the science is settled”   2 decades ago.
They should have said “the politics are settled” because those outdated projections still being used based on assumptions most useful to politics are no longer  authentic to objective science in the year 2021.

By metmike - June 20, 2021, 7:33 p.m.
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    Mike Maguire

                    

                Reply to             Mike        

        June 20, 2021 4:04 pm

        I’m smart enough to know to stick with mainly predicting the weather for the next 2 weeks as an operational meteorologist and even 2 weeks is pushing it on skill in many situations.

 I also trade commodities for a living and know a few things about risking real money based entirely on a my weather prediction.
Am thinking you wouldn’t consider putting much on the line with your 30 year projection……… .and really, nobody will hold you accountable………and its sort of fun to make guesses as a non expert, with no harm in it (-:

However, if Dr. Spencer or another expert made a specific prediction like this………..his reputation would totally be on the line. 

On the other hand, the UN and climate gatekeepers that provide warming and climate projections for political and energy policies have been making predictions out the wazoo that have been consistently wrong for over 3 decades with absolutely no negative consequences to them or their reputation.

If this principle applied to trading the markets, they could constantly establish wrong positions, have the market go against them in most years………………..then, have their broker tell them at the end of every year……………..”don’t worry about it, I’ll cover all your losses because I believe in you! Don’t change a thing!”