INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 24, 2021, 4:49 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 25, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -13.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.1%)



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State



10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 86.6; previous 82.9)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 78.8)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 89.4)



Monday, June 28, 2021 



10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 34.9)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.7)



Tuesday, June 29, 2021 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%



9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)



10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,294.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews this month's decline, the 100-day moving average crossing at 33,209.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,294.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 34,849.32. First support is the 100-day moving average crossing at 33,209.37. Second support is the March 25th low crossing at 32,071.41.

 

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,927.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14,422.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,927.74. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,701.84. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday and spiked to a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4260.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 159-26. 

  

September T-bonds closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally of May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 163-02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-01.  



September T-notes closed down 30-pts. at 132.030.



September T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 130.315. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $67.46.  




August heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $204.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $219.19. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $204.04. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.    



August unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1458 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2869. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1458. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.0200.  



August Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.196 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.460. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.196. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.108. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 90.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing 91.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.72.  



The September Euro closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 120.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.08. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17.



The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4073 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4065. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4073. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

 

The September Swiss Franc closed unchanged on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1081 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1089. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0774.



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 82.22. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.08. Second support isthe 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62.



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091393 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090991. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091393. First support is today's low crossing at 0.090050. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold close lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's decline, the April 29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1854.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1812.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1854.70. First support is the April 29th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $1725.50.  



July silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at 24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.343 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.745. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.343. First support is Monday's low crossing at 25.580. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at 24.725.  



July copper posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 444.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 399.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 431.76. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 444.26. First support is Monday's low crossing at 408.80. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 399.50. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.00 1/4-cent at $5.36. 



December corn closed fractionally higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $5.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.72 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.28 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $4.77.  



July wheat closed down $0.10 3/4-cents at $6.50 1/2.  



July wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.90. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.04. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $6.06.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.20 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.83 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2.



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $8.09 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.43 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.43 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.68 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down $0.09-cents at $12.91 1/4.



November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.32 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.76 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.



July soybean meal closed down $7.90 to $346.30. 



July soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $331.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $379.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $402.70. First support is today's low crossing at $339.90. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $331.10.      



July soybean oil closed up 43-pts. at 62.56. 



July soybean oil higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.85. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.82. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31.     

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $4.50 at $10.03. 



July hogs gapped lower on the open and closed limit down on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $109.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.58. First support is today's low crossing at $100.03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42.  



August cattle closed down $0.20 at $122.68. 



August cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.46 would signal that a top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.46. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.62. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $157.05. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $162.40. Closes below the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $160.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.59 would signal that a low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.92 would open the door for a possible test of the May 13th low crossing at 14.83.              



September cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                   



July sugar closed higher on Thursday and above the neckline of the April-June head-and-shoulder's top crossing near 16.66. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The April-June head-and-shoulders top projects a decline to the 14.75 area later this summer.      



July cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 14th low crossing at 83.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.             





Comments
By metmike - June 24, 2021, 7:56 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Excessive rains/weather: 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71449/


June Historic heat waves..............working on this later today

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71468/


tjc............too much rain

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71475/



Crop ratings: Corn -3%, Beans -2%. Spring Wheat down a whopping 10%. HUGE gap higher for MWE on Monday night thats holding. Corn and beans lower because of big rains now falling but we experienced a selling exhaustion earlier this morning along with the threat of too much rain.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71355/


Weather: Bullish for WCB/Plains and in the extended. Tons of rain, which has started for the central and eastern cornbelt.......bearish overall until these big rains got  dialed in with a spike low on Thursday morning. Concerns on excessive rains also part of it. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/


Natural gas........BULLISH EIA number Thursday......Wxfollowers expert EIA comments.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/


Exports......market focused more on weather.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71345/


Beans in and out, then back in the teens, not back out:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/


MarketForum producers tell us what's happening with their crops

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70437/