INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 25, 2021, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, June 25, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -13.1%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.1%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 86.6; previous 82.9)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 78.8)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 89.4)

 



 

 

Monday, June 28, 2021  

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 34.9)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.7)

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 29, 2021  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,963.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 14,422.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,963.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,750.30.



The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00 later this summer. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4263.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-31.  



September T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is May's low crossing at 131.000.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.62.



August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0341 to signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.1916. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0341. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490.  



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1214 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2869. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1214. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.0200.



August Henry natural gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.220 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.461. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.220. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.083.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.81 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.52. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.81.



The September Euro was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $119.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.95. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.83. Second support is the the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17.

 

The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4058 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4034. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4058. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1068 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0973. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1064. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at $80.08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090952 would signal that  a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090952. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091565. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.090050. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1849.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1803.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1834.20. First support is the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50.



July silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the April 13th low crossing at $24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.263 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.563. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.263. First support is Monday's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.725. 



July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4256 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4256. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 4.5950. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.0880. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $5.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.71 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.17 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $5.14 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4.        



September wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.92 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.37 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2.

 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.89 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4.



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.20 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.51. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.68 3/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.18 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.

 

December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.42 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $381.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $369.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $381.70. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.10. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $324.10.


December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.13. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.    

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $4.50 at $10.03. 



July hogs gapped lower on the open and closed limit down on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The limit down close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $109.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.97. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.58. First support is today's low crossing at $100.03. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42.  



August cattle closed down $0.20 at $122.68. 



August cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.46 would signal that a top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.46. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.62. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.35 at $157.05. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $162.40. Closes below the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $160.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.59 would signal that a low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.92 would open the door for a possible test of the May 13th low crossing at 14.83.              



September cocoa closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                   



July sugar closed higher on Thursday and above the neckline of the April-June head-and-shoulder's top crossing near 16.66. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The April-June head-and-shoulders top projects a decline to the 14.75 area later this summer.      



July cotton closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 14th low crossing at 83.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.             





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