KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, June 28, 2021 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous 34.9)

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.7)

Tuesday, June 29, 2021 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)

10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)

                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,291.30 signals that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 34,849.32 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 33,869.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,849.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 33,869.83. Second support is the June 18^th low crossing at 33,271.93.

The September NASDAQ 100 posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,962.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 14,422.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,962.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,749.72. 

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4273.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.  

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September T-bonds closed down 30/32's at 159-00. 

September T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Monday high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally of May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 163-02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-30.  

September T-notes closed down 70-pts. at 131.305.

September T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 130.315. 

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August crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $74.25. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $70.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $66.64.  

August heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $204.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $219.19. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $204.04. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.    

August unleaded gas posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off March's low,the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1211 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $2.2937. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1211. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.0200.  

August Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday and posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.223 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.527. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.223. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.084. 

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The September Dollar closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 90.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing 91.53. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.81.  

The September Euro closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended this week's short covering rebound off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 119.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.94. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17.

The September British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4056 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4033. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4056. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1068 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0972. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1068. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0774.

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.84. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.08. Second support isthe 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62.

The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091565 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090949. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091565. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.090050. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.

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August gold close higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's decline, the April 29^th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1848.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1802.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1848.90. First support is the April 29^th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $1725.50.  

July silver closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 13^th low crossing at 24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.258 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26.554. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.258. First support is Monday's low crossing at 25.580. Second support is the April-13^th low crossing at 24.725.  

July copper closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 442.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the April 12^th low crossing at 399.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 429.27. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 442.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at 408.80. Second support is the April 12^th low crossing at 399.50. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed down $0.17 1/4-cent at $5.18 3/4. 

December corn closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off June's high. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $5.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.70 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $6.28 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $4.77.  

July wheat closed down $0.16 1/2-cents at $6.34 3/4.  

July wheat closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.69. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.

July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.06 1/2-cents at $5.99 1/2.

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.18 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.18 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $5.83 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2.

July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.13 1/4-cents at $8.22 1/2. 

July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.46 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.46 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.68 3/4. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down $0.22-cents at $12.69 3/4.

November soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.71 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.71 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.

December soybean meal closed up $5.80 to $356.60. 

December soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $382.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $370.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $382.10. First support is today's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.      

December soybean oil closed down 307-pts. at 57.09. 

December soybean oil posted a key reversal down with today's lower close on Monday signaling a possible end to the rebound off the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.93. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.     

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

July hogs closed up $1.68 at $101.70. 

July hogs gapped closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $109.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $109.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.96. First support is today's low crossing at $99.78. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $96.42.  

August cattle closed up $0.13 at $122.68. 

August cattle closed higher on Friday as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.52 would signal that a top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.52. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.62. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $2.10 at $159.25. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $162.40. Closes below the June 14^th gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $160.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the June 14^th gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75. 

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

July coffee gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.60 signaling that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.96 would open the door for a possible test of the May 13^th low crossing at 14.83.              

September cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.13 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                  

July sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Monday's low would renew the decline off June's high and open the door for a possible test of April's low crossing at 14.68 later this summer.      

December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17^th low crossing at 83.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.