INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 9, 2018, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 9, 2018   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index

 



 

 

                       ETI (previous 107.69)

 



 

 

                       ETI, Y/Y% (previous +3.9%)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +9.26B)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight taking its cue off a global rally for stocks as investors take a break from trade-focused worries and remained encouraged by last week’s upbeat U.S. jobs report.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends last-Friday's rally, June's high crossing at 7358.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6956.00 would renew the decline off June's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6956.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50.    



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends last-Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 2783.70 then June's high crossing at 2795.50 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 2681.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2783.70. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 2795.50. First support is June's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018  decline crossing at 147-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 146-11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09. Second support is June's low crossing at 142-01.  



September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.287 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.030 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.212. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.287. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.    



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: AugustNymex crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target.First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016 decline crossing at 77.08. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 72.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.41.    



August heating oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 224.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 224.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.62.



August unleaded gas was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.55. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.927 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.927. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.822. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the February-June-decline crossing at 93.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.46. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the February-June-decline crossing at 93.30.



The September Euro was higher overnight and is testing resistance marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.53. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.53. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.79.



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off June's low.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains near-term are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3444 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3253 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3444. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is June's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048.  



The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-months. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.0219 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0300. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is June's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 77.10 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.10. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54. Third support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 72.83.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short covering rebound is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9162 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9162. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9044. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October- crossing at 0.9006. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Wednesday's low due to weakness in the US Dollar. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1271.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1293.60. First support is the 62% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



July silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.351 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the April-2016 low crossing at 15.373 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.351. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.445. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 15.730. Second support is the April-2016 low crossing at 15.373. 



August copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 292.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 303.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 277.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 rally crossing at 272.10. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.75 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.24 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.96. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 5.34 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.76 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.76 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.89. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.07 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If November extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 8.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.07 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is psychological support crossing at 8.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 338.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 338.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 349.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 323.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.93 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last week's decline, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.02. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $0.63 at $75.43. 



August hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 80.55. First support is June's low crossing at 73.28. Second support is April's low crossing at 72.45.  



October cattle closed down $0.50 at 109.63. 



October cattle posted a key reversal down with today's lower close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.01. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 110.05.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.37 at $152.20. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148.37.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee posted a huge key reversal up on Friday signaling a possible end to this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.   



September cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.92 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 22.64 is the next downside target.  



October sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.65 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!