Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:44 a.m.

Southern and Eastern Cornbelt drying out(MO/IL/IN/OH) the next week...........though not completely dry everywhere. New rains emerging later this week, still look like they did yesterday but more than they did last week.

Forecast for rains below:

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 1

Day 1 QPF

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 2

Day 2 QPF

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

24 Hour Precipitation Total - Day 3

Day 3 QPF

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

    

Days 4-5
 
            Day 4-5 QPF valid 12z 07/11/18 - 12z 07/13/18     
Valid 12z 07/11/18 - 12z 07/13/18     
[contours only]    
Days 6-7
 
            Day 6-7 QPF valid 12z 07/13/18 - 12z 07/15/18     
Valid 12z 07/13/18 - 12z 07/15/18     
[contours only]



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:45 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Main jet stream shifted.  Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:46 a.m.
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Not much Excessive Rainfall threat.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 07/05/18 - 12Z 07/06/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:49 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday........hottest West.

                    

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
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Dry air, especially Northeast making it comfortable............dew points starting to increase northward to Ohio River Valley.

Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:51 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity .....feels like temperature!

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:56 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7 shows  Hot in Midwest.......cooling late Upper Midwest.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:56 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year. Above average in the hottest time of year!:

High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
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By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:57 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                                    

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:58 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Minnesota!           

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 10:59 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11 a.m.
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http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:01 a.m.
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:17 a.m.
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A significant feature to the forecast this morning is the longer range, week 3 and week 4 forecast that seems to be getting some attention.......MUCH cooler today:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:24 a.m.
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Canadian ensembles back up the heat ridge in week 2 with a deepening trough in the Northeast. This has been a consistent theme for numerous days for this model with fewer and fewer members having the heat ridge farther east. 


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 25, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:26 a.m.
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GFS ensembles almost all have the same thing..dome Southwest to S.Plains....upper level trough Northeast:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f384.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 12:22 p.m.
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The analog temperature guidance for the 8-14 day period is VERY cool compared to its output from the last month:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


Here is the precip

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 1:20 p.m.
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Last 12Z GFS continuing the trend of the dome backing up...........way up to the Southwest on this run and a very deep/cool upper level trough for the eastern half of the country on this run:

      

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 1:29 p.m.
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I will be on Relevant Radio this afternoon on the Drew Mariani show, from 4:00-4:30pm Central, talking about climate change. 

The reason that they want me on is because of this comment from Pope Francis:

Pope warns climate change turning Earth into desert, garbage

https://apnews.com/2dc33645a7e140ffa63e9f5f3b8d2504


And this one:

Al Gore: Pope Francis a ‘moral force’ for solving climate crisis

https://www.vaticannews.va/en/world/news/2018-07/al-gore-pope-francis-climate-crisis.html

You can listen here live:

https://relevantradio.com/wp-content/media/rrplayer.php


I'll try to have the link to the taped/archives late today or tomorrow.

By metmike - July 9, 2018, 3:58 p.m.
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The latest NWS forecast, like the last 2 days now,  continues to be the most bearish its been in over 2 weeks...less heat in the Midwest and tons of rain. 

Last week and the week before featured hot/dry on ever extended forecast going back for 2 weeks. 

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability 8-14 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 9, 2018, 11:22 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png