USDA July 12, 2021
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Started by metmike - July 11, 2021, 10:57 p.m.

@kannbwx

Pay attention to the #Brazil #corn number. Analysts see USDA on Monday slashing the crop by 6.3 mmt from June after prolonged drought and then frost damage. Conab on Thursday reduced 3 mmt to 93.4 mmt. USDA was 110 in late 2020, 109 Jan-April, 102 in May and 98.5 in June.

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By metmike - July 11, 2021, 10:58 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Brazil's 2nd corn crop is the one they most heavily export, and losses there usually translate into more U.S. business. But U.S. corn sales have been historically light in recent weeks, old and new crop. So it hasn't yet produced the expected impact.

By metmike - July 11, 2021, 11 p.m.
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@kannbwx

July WASDE is coming on Monday. Analysts see new-crop U.S. 

#corn carryout up 3% from last month's forecast largely on an increase in acres.

 #Wheat stocks are seen down 14% on the year while #soybeans are expected to rise just 14 mln bu.

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By metmike - July 11, 2021, 11:01 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Minor changes expected for stocks at the world level. Largest change is in new-crop #wheat, seen down 1.4 million tonnes.

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By metmike - July 11, 2021, 11:03 p.m.
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@kannbwx

USDA will incorporate the new U.S. acreage numbers into its July balance sheet, but some analysts think yield could fall based on poor conditions in some areas. USDA does not usually have enough information to change yield in July, but they might this time? I truly don't know.

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By metmike - July 11, 2021, 11:03 p.m.
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@kannbwx

NASS will publish its first surveyed estimate of the U.S. spring #wheat crop on Monday. 

The trade guess of 459 mln bu would be the smallest in 4 years. Combining that estimate with harvested acres from last week's report would suggest yield down 16% from last year's high.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:29 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. ending stocks come in fairly close to expectations except for wheat, where the crop was smaller than expected. USDA did not make changes to U.S. corn and soy yields.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:30 p.m.
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@kannbwx


USDA cuts #Brazil's #corn crop by 5.5 mmt to 93 mmt, though #Argentina's crop increased by 1.5 mmt. Slight reduction for Argy #soybeans but Brazil soy was unch.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:31 p.m.
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@kannbwx


The trade misses the U.S. spring #wheat crop by a mile. Pre-trade estimates suggested yield about 15% below recent trend. Seemed unlikely with the worst crop conditions since 1988, a year where yields were down nearly 50%.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:32 p.m.
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@kannbwx

USDA did not make any changes to yield for U.S. #corn and #soybeans (they typically don't in July anyway). So the result is the harvested area estimates from the June acreage survey combined with the trend yield from before. Survey-based yields start in August.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:33 p.m.
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@kannbwx

World #wheat stocks come in well below estimates with a smaller U.S. crop, but #soybeans exceed expectations. #China's bean imports were reduced by 3 mmt (2 mmt in 20/21, 1 mmt in 21/22). #Corn stocks up on a bigger U.S. crop, but China corn imports unch.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 12:34 p.m.
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@kannbwx

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For old-crop U.S. #corn, USDA left #ethanol unch at 5.05 bln bu (hmmmm), exports unch at 2.85 bbu, but increased feed+res 25 mbu to 5.725 bbu. On new-crop they left ethanol unch at 5.2 bbu, raised exports 50 mbu to 2.5 bbu (hmmm), and added 25 mbu to f+r to get 5.725 bbu.

By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:36 p.m.
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@kannbwx

The U.S. spring #wheat crop at 345 million bushels is set to be the smallest since 1988 and 42% off the recent three-year average. Yield at 30.7 bu/acre would be the worst since 2002 and 37% off the three-year average.

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By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:37 p.m.
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@kannbwx

On #soybeans, old-crop crush down 5 mbu to 2.17 bbu, exports down 10 mbu to 2.27 bbu. New-crop crush (2.225 bbu) and exports (2.075 bbu) unch. OC cash price down 20 cents to $11.05/bu, NC down 15 to $13.70. On #corn OC up 5 cents to $4.40, NC down 10 to $5.60/bu.

By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:38 p.m.
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@kannbwx

For old-crop U.S. #corn, USDA left #ethanol unch at 5.05 bln bu (hmmmm), exports unch at 2.85 bbu, but increased feed+res 25 mbu to 5.725 bbu. On new-crop they left ethanol unch at 5.2 bbu, raised exports 50 mbu to 2.5 bbu (hmmm), and added 25 mbu to f+r to get 5.725 bbu.