KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, July 13, 2021 

6:00 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (expected 99.6; previous 99.6)

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. June CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +5.0%; previous +5%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +4.0%; previous +3.8%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +17.2%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +19.4%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.0M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.7M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 35,091.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,332.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 35,002.69. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,332.23. Second support is the June 18^th low crossing at 33,271.93.

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,424.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14,888.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 14,683.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,424.21. 

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it extended this year's rally to a new high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally upside targets are hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4275.27 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4375.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4275.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4212.45.  

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed down 6/32's at 162-14. 

September T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally of May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-16.  

September T-notes closed down 15-pts at 133.125.

September T-notes closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.181 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 134.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.182. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.037.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. If August resumes last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.91 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98.First support is the June 17^th low crossing at $69.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $68.91.  

August heating oil closed steady to slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $208.02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $221.01. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $208.02. Second support is May's low crossing at $194.90.    

August unleaded gas posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low,the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1711 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1711. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.1044.  

August Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.490 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.520. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.490. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing 92.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 92.84. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at 92.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing 92.03. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 91.51.  

The September Euro closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 117.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.30. Second resistance is the June 26^th high crossing at 119.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 118.17. Second support is March's low crossing at 117.47.

The September British Pound closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3892 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3892. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4015. First support is July's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1044 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0744 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0969. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1044. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0775. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at 1.0701.

The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.87 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 79.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.87. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.85. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 79.62. Second support is April's low crossing at 79.06.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091166 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091166. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.089205.

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last-week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1835.80 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April 13^th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1835.80. Second resistance is the June 11^th high crossing at $1906.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $1725.50.  

December silver closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.197 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off May's high, the April 13^th low crossing at 24.805 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 26.935. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.197. First support is June's low crossing at 25.635. Second support is the April-13^th low crossing at 24.805.  

September copper closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 440.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12^th low crossing at 400.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 440.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 447.38. First support is June's low crossing at 409.40. Second support is the April 12^th low crossing at 400.00. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up $0.16-cents at $5.33. 

December corn closed higher on Monday despite a neutral to bearish USDA report. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.50 1/4. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.  

September wheat closed up $0.25 3/4-cents at $6.40 3/4.  

September wheat closed higher on Monday as the USDA report lowered both US ending stocks and world stocks. The US stocks were due in part mostly to Spring wheat as ending stocks have now been cut in half from last year’s number of 235 down to 119. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.

September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.21 1/4-cents at $6.15 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 is the next upside target. If September renews this month's decline, March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.69. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.56 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.43-cents at $8.57 1/4. 

September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Monday as it posted a new high close for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.00 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $8.59 3/4. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.00 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.72 1/2. 

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.21-cents at $13.50 1/4.

November soybeans closed higher on Monday following a mostly neutral USDA WASDE report.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $14.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 30^th low crossing at $12.91 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.

December soybean meal closed up $3.60 to $362.50. 

December soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes the 50-day moving average crossing at $387.10 would renew the rally off June's low and would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $387.10. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $404.30. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the December-2020 low crossing at $340.80.      

December soybean oil closed up 142-pts. at 62.36. 

December soybean oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.06 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 58.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 64.87. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.06. First support is the June 25^th low crossing at 56.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08.     

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $2.50 at $104.08. 

August hogs closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 1^st high crossing at $105.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 1^st high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.72. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  

August cattle closed up $0.60 at $119.83. 

August cattle closed higher on Monday but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.23. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the June 8^th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.91. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. First support is the June 8^th low at $117.23. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63. 

August Feeder cattle closed down $1.03 at $158.15. 

Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.15. Second support is the June 14^th gap crossing at $151.90.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.                

September cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Monday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.24 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renew the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target.                     

October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

December cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17^th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.