KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 13, 2021
6:00 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 99.6; previous 99.6)
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. June CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.6%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.7%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +5.0%; previous +5%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +4.0%; previous +3.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +17.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +19.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,465.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 14,927.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,465.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,928.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4281.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4379.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4281.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4216.73.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 161-28. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160-22.
September T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.196 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 133.020. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.196.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. If August extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.36.
August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0847 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2.2101. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0847. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1757 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1757. Second support is the June 17th low crossing at $2.1044.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.507 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.994. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.507. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.243.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 5th low crossing at $92.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the July 5th low crossing at $92.00. Second support is the June 23rd low crossing at $91.51.
The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.63. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.97.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3891 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3879. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4016. First support is July's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1043 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1043. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $79.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.76. Second resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $81.28. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62. Second support is April's low crossing at $79.06.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091150 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091150. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. First support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1836.60 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1836.60. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1750.10. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50.
September silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.159 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 13th low crossing at $24.800 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.159. Second resistance is the June 11th high crossing at $28.465. First support is June's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.800.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4699. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 4.0000.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.47 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. However, it will take closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.
September wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, March's low crossing at $5.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.78 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.
September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.46 3/4 signal that a short-term low has been posted and opens the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.40. If September renews the decline off July's high, March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.40. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.66 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.05 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. Second resistance is the January 2013 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.82 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.05 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.74 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $12.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $12.30.
December soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $368.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. However, it will take closes above July's high crossing at $392.70 to renew the rally off July's low and signal that a larger-degree rally is unfolding. First resistance is last-Tuesday's gap crossing at $383.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $386.20. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at 56.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 64.76. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the June 25th low crossing at 56.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 52.08. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 47.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $2.50 at $104.08.
August hogs closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 1st high crossing at $105.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $105.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.72. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.
August cattle closed up $0.60 at $119.83.
August cattle closed higher on Monday but remains below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.23. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the June 8th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.91. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. First support is the June 8th low at $117.23. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.03 at $158.15.
Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $157.15. Second support is the June 14th gap crossing at $151.90.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Monday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.24 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renew the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 89.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 17th low crossing at 83.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Still in Detroit with Dad.
Weather for grains is on the bearish side for week 1 but turns very bullish for week 2.
Corn is pollinating now.