KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, July 16, 2021  

8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.3%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.7%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

10:00 AM ET. June State Employment and Unemployment

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 86.3; previous 86.4)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 83.8)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.6)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (expected +0.5%; previous -0.2%)

4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data

Monday, July 19, 2021  

10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 81)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,579.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 14,996.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,579.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,001.18.

The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4301.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4384.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4301.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4228.51.               

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161-11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 158-17.  

September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends its rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.262 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.125. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132.262. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.087.   

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.58 is the next downside target. If August resumes this year's rally, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $76.98. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $80.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.58. Second support is May's low crossing at $61.36.

August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.0510 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $2.2101. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.0510. Second support is the May 21^st low crossing at $1.9490.  

August unleaded gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1862 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $2.3302. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3876. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1862. Second support is the June 17^th low crossing at $2.1044.

August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 7^th low crossing at 3.520 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August resumes the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.994 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at 3.822. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.994. First support is the July 7^th low crossing at 3.520. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.280.  

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 5^th low crossing at $92.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the July 5^th low crossing at $92.00. Second support is the June 23^rd low crossing at $91.51.

The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $117.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.81. Second resistance is the June 25^th high crossing at $119.95. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $117.86. Second support is March's low crossing at $117.47.

The September British Pound was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.3913 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.3913. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4010. First support is July's low crossing at 1.3733. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1038 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1038. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.1231. First support is July's low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774. 

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $79.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.46. Second resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $81.28. First support is April's low crossing at $79.06. Second support is the February 26^th low crossing at $78.43.

The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 8^th high crossing at 0.091350 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 8^th high crossing at 0.091350. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the January-July-decline crossing at 0.091615. First support is July's low crossing at 0.089605. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.089205.  

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1838.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1791.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1838.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1919.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1791.90. Second support is June's low crossing at $1750.10.

September silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.133 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 13^th low crossing at $24.800 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.133. Second resistance is the June 11^th high crossing at $28.465. First support is June's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13^th low crossing at $24.800. 

September copper was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the April 12^th low crossing at 4.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 6^th high crossing at 4.4025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at 4.4025. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4571. First support is June's low crossing at 4.0940. Second support is the April 12^th low crossing at 4.0000.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 6^th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.07. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4.        

September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $6.94 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.42 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $6.94 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.08 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.16 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.94.

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 7^th low, July's high crossing at $6.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.11 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $6.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $6.81 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.11 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.78 1/4. 

September Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.13. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.26 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.81 1/2.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at $14.23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.37 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $14.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.37 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off Tuesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. However, it will take closes above July's high crossing at $392.70 to renew the rally off July's low and signal that a larger-degree rally is unfolding. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $373.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $384 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 67.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 7th low crossing at 58.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 64.76. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 67.04. First support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.03. Second support is the June 25^th low crossing at 56.66.     

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed down $0.53 at $104.47. 

August hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.59 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $106.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.59. First support is June's low crossing at $96.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $95.71.  

August cattle closed down $0.10 at $121.15. 

August cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the June 8^th low crossing at $117.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.62. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $125.78. First support is the June 8^th low at $117.23. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.63. 

August Feeder cattle closed up $0.63 at $157.58. 

August feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends Wednesday's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.67 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $162.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $161.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.67. Second support is the June 14^th gap crossing at $151.90.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $164.65 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 14.15 is the next downside target.                

September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.27 are needed to open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 25.05.                      

October sugar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at 16.44 the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      

December cotton closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 91.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.