August 12, 2021 USDA crop production report
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Started by metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 2:18 p.m.


@kannbwx

U.S. yield for #soybeans in August has also been underestimated for six straight years, and in five of them the USDA number topped all trade estimates.

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@kannbwx

Bit of a different trend for #soybeans. Final yields have been lower than the August forecast three years running (2017 just 0.1 bu/acre lower). But USDA's August number was too low between 2011-2016. 50+ seemed unimaginable in 2016. But it happened, and now that's the baseline.

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By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 2:21 p.m.
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@kannbwx

August U.S. #corn yield from USDA/NASS has come in above the average pre-report trade guess for six consecutive years. USDA's August yield was fully above the trade range of guesses in four of those last six years. The 2021 report is due Aug. 12.

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By metmike - Aug. 4, 2021, 2:23 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Perhaps in defense of analysts' streak of underestimating U.S. #corn yield in August..... Final U.S. corn yield has come in above what USDA said in August in only 4 of the past 15 years.

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By metmike - Aug. 11, 2021, 1:32 a.m.
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@kannbwx

Analysts think USDA will take another chunk out of #Brazil's #corn harvest after the recent damaging frosts. Crop pegged at 88.7 mmt for Thursday, though I have seen estimates in the mid/lower 80s, too. FYI Reuters only polled for Brazil corn this month.

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By metmike - Aug. 11, 2021, 1:32 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn stocks for 21/22 are expected to shrink on Thursday with smaller crop projections, but carryout for #soybeans is seen slightly higher than last month despite an expected trim to the crop.

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By metmike - Aug. 11, 2021, 1:33 a.m.
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@kannbwx

New-crop global #corn and #wheat stocks are seen falling from the July estimates, but #soybeans are expected to rise slightly. Aside from U.S. corn/soy numbers, I'll be watching Russian/Canadian wheat estimates and Canadian canola. And #China. Always watching China.

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By metmike - Aug. 11, 2021, 1:34 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. spring & durum #wheat will be in focus for Thursday's USDA report. The spring wheat harvest last month was already expected to be the smallest since 1988, and estimates for this month are lower. As of Sunday, 38% of the crop was harvested, more than usual.

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By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 12:10 p.m.
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Gee, I wonder if the report was bullish or bearish (-:


Obviously VERY bullish. Corn touch limit up!

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 12:13 p.m.
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@kannbwx


U.S. #corn yield comes in below the trade range of guesses at 174.6 bu/acre. #Soybeans in at 50 bu/acre, fairly close to the trade expectation.

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By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 12:15 p.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. new-crop #corn ending stocks are seen lower than analysts expected, as a smaller crop outweighed demand cuts.

 Demand for #soybeans was also cut, but that left new-crop supplies unch.

 #Wheat down on a smaller crop.

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By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 12:16 p.m.
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@kannbwx

USDA cut 6 million tonnes off its July estimate for #Brazil's #corn crop, now pegged at 87 mmt. #Argentina's #soybeans were also trimmed 0.5 mmt.

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By Jim_M - Aug. 12, 2021, 2:57 p.m.
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Ending stocks are getting kind of skinny.

By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 6:53 p.m.
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Agreed.

Very bad close for the beans and corn..........too much rain in the week 2  forecast probably.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71672/#71684

Wheat, however looks like the new upside  leader!

However, seasonals for all 3 are UP after the August crop report to just before harvest.

By metmike - Aug. 16, 2021, 2:41 p.m.
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@kannbwx

New-crop carryout for #soybeans has been unchanged from 155 million bushels for three months now, but 160 mbu on old-crop is the heaviest estimate since December. New-crop stocks/use seen at 3.54% (vs 3.51% in July) and old-crop is at 3.54% (2.97% in July).

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By metmike - Aug. 16, 2021, 2:42 p.m.
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@kannbwx

The outlook for new-crop U.S. #corn carryout at 1.242 billion bushels is the smallest for this point in the cycle in 9 years. Old-crop carryout at 1.117 bbu is an 8-year low, but USDA this month increased that number for the first time in a year after a demand trim.

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By metmike - Aug. 16, 2021, 2:43 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Aug 12

August 12: CBOT Dec #corn jumps 14 cents/bu (2.5%) to $5.73-1/4 on bullish U.S. yields from USDA. It was up as much as 35 cents just after the data landed, reaching its highest point since July 2. This is corn's most positive reaction to the August report since 2011.

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