INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 11, 2021, 4:22 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, August 12, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 375K; previous 385K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -14K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 2930000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -366K)



8:30 AM ET. July PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 898.4K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 436.2K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 308.3K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2727B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +13B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1432M)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 155M)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 665M)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 3.30M)



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, August 13, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +4.6%)



10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 81.3; previous 80.8)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.4)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.5)



Monday, August 16, 2021 



8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 43.0)



                       Employment Idx (previous 20.6)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 33.2)



                       Prices Received (previous 39.4)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the recent upside breakout of the May-July trading range to a new all-time highs. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,628.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 35,491.19. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 34,714.33. second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,628.45.  



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 14,774.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 14,744.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,553.94. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4384.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4312.52. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4443.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4384.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4312.52.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 1/32's at 163-06. 

  

September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is today's low crossing at 162-17. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-25.  



September T-notes closed up 35-pts at 133.210.



September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.076 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 134.093 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.076. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed higher on Wednesday after the Biden administration said it would not call on U.S. producers to increase crude output, and that efforts to increase OPEC production were a longer-range plan. Additional support came from a government report showing U.S. crude supplies fell last week. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off the July 30th high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $76.98. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is the May low crossing at $61.06.



September heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off the July 30th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $212.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at $196.41 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $221.20. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $227.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at $200.59. Second support is July's low crossing at $202.09.     



September unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2263 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2263. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.    



September Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.970 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is the November-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.970. Second support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar posted a key reversal down as it closed lower on Wednesday signaling that a double top with July's high might have been posted today. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 93.21. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 92.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.98. 



The September Euro posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 116.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 118.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.22. First support is the September-2020 low crossing at 117.16. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 116.07.



The September British Pound posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3833 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.4135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3833. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.3578.  

 

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0984 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0984. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0801.



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the July 23rd low crossing at 79.32 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.62. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at 79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at 78.08. 



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, July's low crossing at 0.090605 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.091073 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is today's low crossing at 0.090270. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089605.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the sharp decline off July's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1800.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $1667.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1788.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1800.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.  



September silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.039 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at 21.344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.039. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.091. First support is Monday's low crossing at 22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at 21.344.   



September copper closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 416.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 438.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 438.69. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 462.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 424.35. Second support is July's low crossing at 416.65.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.06-cents at $5.59 1/4. 



December corn closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at $5.07. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.    



September wheat closed unchanged at $7.27.  



September wheat closed unchanged on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.03 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.03 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.77 1/2.



September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $7.10 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $7.19. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.97 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.02 1/2-cents at $9.13. 



September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the July-August symmetrical triangle. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.42 3/4. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.03 1/4-cents at $13.40.



November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is the July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.



December soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $356.50. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $360.10 would signal that a double bottom with June's low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $369.30. Second resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $375.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00.       



December soybean oil closed up 98-pts. at 61.60. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.67 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is July's low crossing at 58.67. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $57.39. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $1.90 at $85.78. 



October hogs closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $80.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $80.90. 



October cattle closed down $0.45 at $127.67. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.92. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $163.00. 



September feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.35 is the next downside target. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.35. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.39 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.85 is the next downside target. 



September cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 25.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                        



October sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

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