INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 12, 2021, 7:58 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, August 12, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 375K; previous 385K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -14K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2930000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -366K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 898.4K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 436.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 308.3K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2727B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +13B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 1432M)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 155M)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels) (previous 665M)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales) (previous 3.30M)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, August 13, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +4.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 81.3; previous 80.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.4)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.5)

 



 

 

Monday, August 16, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 43.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 20.6)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 33.2)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 39.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,970.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,970.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,581.48.  



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 4364.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4444.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4389.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4317.52.               



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-18. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-29. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.087 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.082 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.082. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 135.060. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.087. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Tuesday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.01. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.



September heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1233 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1233. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.



September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level  of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2286 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2286. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.  



September Henry natural gas was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.992 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.992. Second support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $92.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.03.



The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.12. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $117.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.



The September British Pound was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3835 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3901 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3901. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3835. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0966 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0966. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is July low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0622. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.56. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would mark a downside breakout of the July-August trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.090991 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.090991. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1796.00 are needed to signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is broken support crossing at $1754.45. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1796.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.



September silver was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below broken support crossing at $23.557. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.887 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.887. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.993. First support is Monday's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.



September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3832 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3832. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.2435. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 would open the door for a test of July's low crossing at $5.07. First resistance is the July 6th gap crossing at $5.73 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.         



September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.47 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.78 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 5th low crossing at $6.87 3/4 or above the August 4th high crossing at $7.19 are needed to clear up near-term direction of the market. If September extends the rally off the July 7th low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at $7.23 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.45 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.44 1/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-August symmetrical triangle. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.45 1/2.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were lower overnight as they await today's monthly WASDE report for direction. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.57 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $359.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $359.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $368.60. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. Third support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $342.50. 


December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 65.04. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is Monday's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $1.90 at $85.78. 



October hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $80.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.47 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $80.90. 



October cattle closed down $0.45 at $127.67. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.92. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $163.00. 



September feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.35 is the next downside target. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.35. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.39 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $165.85 is the next downside target. 



September cocoa closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 25.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                        



October sugar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 93.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 87.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

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By metmike - Aug. 12, 2021, 10:49 a.m.
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