INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 13, 2021, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, August 13, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes

 



 

 

                       Import Prices (expected +0.6%; previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +4.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 81.3; previous 80.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.4)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.5)

 



 

 

Monday, August 16, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 43.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 20.6)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 33.2)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 39.4)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,993.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,993.74. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,613.65.  



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4396.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4459.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4396.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4323.27.               



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 164-17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 167-00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-01. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.



September T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.099 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.076 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134.076. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 135.060. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.099. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as the fast spread of the delta virus has clouded the near-term demand outlookThe high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.03. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.



September heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1234 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1234. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.



September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2302 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level  of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.2302. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.  



September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.658 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the July 28th low crossing at 3.837. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.657.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.09.



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the late-July high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.04. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $117.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3835 has opened the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3894 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3894. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3811. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.3573.



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0961 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0961. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is July low crossing at 1.0801. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.0622. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.50. First support is the July 23rd low crossing at $79.32. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090963 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375 would open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.090963. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 0.090375. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.20 are needed to signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is 10-day moving average crossing at $1774.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1793.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.



September silver was higher overnight as it consolidates below broken support crossing at $23.557. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.752 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.287. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.753. First support is Monday's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.



September copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the August 6th high crossing at 4.4215 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 6th high crossing at 4.4215. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.2435. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight and remains poised to extend Thursday's rally following a bullish WASDE report. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at $5.51 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.         



September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low and spiked to a new contract high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, April's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.11 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $7.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.80 1/4.

 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.84 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47.  



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's upside breakout of the July-August symmetrical triangle. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 26th low crossing at $8.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.49.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the July 19th high, July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $368.00. Second resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $375.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. 


December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 65.04. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is Monday's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.60 at $86.45. 



October hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $80.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $80.90. 



October cattle closed up $0.90 at $128.48. 



October cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $126.99. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed up $0.85 at $163.68. 



September feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off today's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $159.53. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $166.31 is the next downside target. 



September cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday while extending the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 25.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         



October sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



December cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 95.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 13, 2021, 1:22 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!

 August 12 crop report USDA...extremely bullish corn and wheat........seasonals especially strong for beans, with some pick in demand and we are in pod fill right now too. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73133/


Exports +more

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73388/


Crop conditions

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73463/


Natural gas..........neutral EIA but weather turning cooler........Big run to run CDD differences

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73381/


Crude..........Biden and Opec

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73371/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73489/


Fred Stormstone.............Wimpstone. Grace may be on the way......no big threat. Hurricane names this year. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73499/


MRNA......cutworm

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73497/


CPI moderates.....Tim

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73486/