KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 17, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +16.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +16.2%)
9:15 AM ET. July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 75.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:00 AM ET. August NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 80)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)
Wednesday, August 18, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 754.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 252)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3684.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. July New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.643M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +6.3%)
Building Permits (previous 1.598M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -5.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 438.777M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.448M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 227.469M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.401M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.511M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.767M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.514M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.654M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
Thursday, August 19, 2021
8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 21.9)
Prices Paid (previous 69.7)
Employment (previous 29.2)
New Orders (previous 17.0)
Prices Received (previous 46.8)
Delivery Times (previous 33.3)
Inventories (previous -4.0)
Shipments (previous 24.6)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 375K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 2866000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -114K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 979.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1217.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 293.1K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Leading Index (previous 115.1)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0%)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2776B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +49B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, August 20, 2021
10:00 AM ET. July State Employment and Unemployment
N/A U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was fall ahead of retail sales report overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 14,917.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the August 8th high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 14,917.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,667.84.
The September S&P 500 was was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4414.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4476.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4414.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4333.24.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the July 20th high crossing at 167-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at 167-04. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-12. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.
September T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, July's high crossing at 135.140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.130 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 135.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.130. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:September crude oil was lower overnight pressured by weak Asian demand.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $61.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $70.95. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $74.23. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $64.67. Second support is May's low crossing at $70.88.
September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the late-July high, July's low crossing at $1.9641 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1197 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1197. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2.2120. First support is July's low crossing at $1.9641. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9420.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 2.0571 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.2643 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.3448. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.3883. First support is the August 9th low crossing at $2.1730. Second support is July's low crossing at $2.0571.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight leaving Monday's key reversal up unconfirmed. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.690 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off last-December's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is August's high crossing at 4.205. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 4.544. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.690. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at 3.572.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.19 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, May's low, March's high crossing at $93.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $93.20. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $93.43. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $92.19. Second support is July's low crossing at $91.78.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.88. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $117.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3881. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3786. Second support is the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extended the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at 1.1100 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0995. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0801.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it has renewed its decline off the July 30th high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $78.08 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.50. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at $79.17. Second support is July's low crossing at $78.08.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 0.092000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090838 would temper the near-term neutral to friendly outlook. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090270 would open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090675. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1791.80 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at $1791.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1806.80. First support is August's low crossing at $1677.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at $1667.00.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off August's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.649 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.978. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.649. First support is August's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.
September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 4.1665 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.2435. Second support is July's low crossing at 4.1665.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.
September wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.16 1/4 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the February-2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.74 3/4. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $7.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.33 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.16 1/4.
September Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.91 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.53. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.11. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the July 19th high crossing at $14.18 is a potential upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.23. First support is August's low crossing at $13.08 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $366.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off the July 21st high, June's low crossing at $347.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $366.90. Second resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $375.70. First support is August's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the July 29th high crossing at 65.04 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 65.04. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.
Thanks tallpine!