INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 20, 2021, 8:03 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, August 20, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

N/A               U.S: Hawaii Statehood Day

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 27th low crossing at 14,774.25 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-August trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at 15,172.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the July 27th low crossing at 14,774.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,728.57.  



The September S&P 500 was was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4343.59 would signal that a short-term trend change is taking place. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4476.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4343.59. Second support is July's low crossing at 4224.00.              



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the July 20th high crossing at 167-04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at 167-04. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 169-10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 164-13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 162-25.



September T-notes were higher overnight and poised to extend the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 135.140 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.159 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 135.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 136.087. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 133.159. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:October crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off the late-July high, May's low crossing at $60.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $66.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $69.95. First support is May's low crossing at $60.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $58.13.



October heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off the late-July high, the April 26th low crossing at $1.8490 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1106 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.0449. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1106. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $1.9446. Second support is  the April 26th low crossing at $1.8490.



October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.8585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.1005 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.0578. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1005. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.8585. Second support is the April 26th low crossing at 1.7847.



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.997 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.738 is the next downside target. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.997. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.211. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.738. Second support is the July 16th low crossing at 3.583.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extended the rally off May's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $92.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $93.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $93.87. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.68.



The September Euro was steady to lower overnight as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high crossing at $119.16, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.56. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $116.71. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $116.07.



The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extended the decline off the late-July high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3851 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3851. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3610. Second support is the July 2nd low crossing at 1.3733.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 1.1100 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.0997. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0801.  

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the late-July high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $77.23. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.02.



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.090815 would temper the near-term neutral to friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 0.092000 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090270 would open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at 0.089635. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092295. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.090675. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1799.80 would open the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at $1835.90. First resistance is 50-day moving average crossing at $1799.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1835.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1767.40. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.  



September silver was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.338 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.338. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.463. First support is August's low crossing at $22.295. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-rally crossing at $21.344.



September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8146 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4.4310. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.9615. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 3.8146.    



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.61 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $6.11 1/4. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $5.07.        



September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.21 would confirm that a double top with May's high has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the February-2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $7.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $7.74 3/4. Second resistance is the February-2013 high on the month continuation chart crossing at $7.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.85.

 

September Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.00 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2019 decline crossing at $7.64 1/4. Second resistance is May-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.55 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.00 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.54 3/4.  



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.14 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $9.53. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.14 1/2. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.70.   

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight strength set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at $13.08 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $13.79 3/4. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at $14.18. First support is August's low crossing at $13.08 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $13.00 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at $348.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $364.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $364.50. Second resistance is the July 21st high crossing at $375.70. First support is August's low crossing at $348.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $347.00. 


December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 58.03 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 64.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 64.00. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at 65.04. First support is August's low crossing at 59.37. Second support is July's low crossing at 58.03.      

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $2.18 at $86.93. 



October hogs closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.53 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $80.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $83.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $80.90. 



October cattle closed down $0.90 at $128.15. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off the July 19th low, June's high crossing at $130.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $127.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $129.93. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $130.48. First support is the August 6th low crossing at $125.82. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $124.05.  



September Feeder cattle closed down $0.45 at $162.90. 



September feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renewed the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84 is the next upside target. If September renewed the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $165.53. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $174.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $160.50. Second support is the July 19th low crossing at $156.58.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $168.20 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $187.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.



September cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at 26.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                         



October sugar closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



December cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 20, 2021, 11:53 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


COVID still increasing

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73060/


Hurricane Grace Stays south of NG in the GOM.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73499/


crude....Jim and Richard...crashing lower.........COVID?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73811/


profarmer....bearish.........rains on the way to IA and Upper Midwest

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73749/


NG: Forecasts.....WARMER!   EIA was bearish on thursday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73381/


crop conditions...tjc....upcoming rains in IA/Upper Midwest bearish

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73758/


exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/73744/