INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 11, 2018, 4:39 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, July 12, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. June CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.9%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.0%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.1%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +2.9%; previous +2.8%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.2%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1142.4K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1045K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 300.4K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 231K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1739000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +32K)



8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2152B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)

                       

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



12:00 PM ET. June Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index



2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



2:00 PM ET. June Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, July 13, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.0%; previous +0.6%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +5.9%)



10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 98.0; previous 99.3)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.4)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 117.9)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 7358.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7146.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the Tuesday's high crossing at 7335.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 7358.50. First support is June's low crossing at 6956.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6855.50. 



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2734.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2797.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03. First support is June's low crossing at 2694.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2681.00. 



The Dow closed lower on Wednesday in a broad-based retreat in the afternoon session after the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, further escalating tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, which some investors fear could translate into a full-blown trade war. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 25,402.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,433.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 24,945.38. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 25,402.83. First support is June's low crossing at 23,997.21. Second support is May's low crossing at 23,531.31.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 145-18.



September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 146-11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-07.       



September T-notes closed up 90-points at 120-095.



September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.312 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.030. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.165. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as a report showing the largest weekly decline in domestic crude supplies in nearly two years failed to ease concerns surrounding a likely rise in Libyan oil exports and potential for weaker demand tied to the U.S.-China trade dispute. Today's sell off was due to profit taking on reports of the return of Libyan crude oil and renewed trade war fears. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.21. 



August heating oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 215.10 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, June's low crossing at 206.89 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 229.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 223.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is June's low crossing at 206.89. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 



August unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 208.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low the reaction high crossing at 219.04 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.913 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.913. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. First support is today's low crossing at 2.780. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.55 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 92.76. First resistance is June's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.55. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.   



The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.34. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3420 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3420. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is June's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 



The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431. First support is June's low crossing at 1.0075. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down on Wednesday signaling a likely end to the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.02. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  



The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 0.8908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9151 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9151. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is today's low crossing at 0.8953. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.8908.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1265.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1265.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1274.40.First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



September silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.325 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.325. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.504. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 15.800. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625.        



August copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 257.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.74 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 288.14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 298.74. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 272.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 257.85. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 6 3/4-cents at 3.54. 



December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off May's high. Favorable weather across much of the corn belt along with news of fresh new tariffs on Chinese goods continues to weigh on prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 3.52 3/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat closed down 17 1/2-cents at 4.92 1/2. 



December wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.30 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.41. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.75 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 19 1/2-cents at 4.98 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December resumes the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.58. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed down 10 1/2-cents at 5.44 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday due to a generally bearish outlook for the young 2018/19 marketing year. Spring wheat futures felt additional pressure from positive weather forecasts fueling an already high-quality 2018 crop.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.89. First support is July's low crossing at 5.43. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 23 1/2-cents at 8.48. 



November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday following the latest trade jabs between the U.S. and China, hitting new contract lows Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 8.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.95 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 8.47 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal closed down $2.50 at 327.80. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 349.60. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 323.20. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil closed down 62-points. At 28.80. 



December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.93. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed down $0.98 at $68.80. 



August hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 67.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. First support is today's low crossing at 68.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 67.35.  



October cattle closed down $1.58 at 106.25. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 106.87 thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 105.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $2.45 at $149.40. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.89.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.   



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.41 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at 11.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 86.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 80.88 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 11, 2018, 4:50 p.m.
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Thanks Tallpine!