NG Thread 8/26+
29 responses | 0 likes
Started by MarkB - Aug. 26, 2021, 1:10 a.m.

Rather large heat build in later 2nd week, GFS. Slight affect on Atlantic coast and northeast. Mostly in the Mississippi valley region. Gonna be interesing to see how Europe responds to it tonight. 

Also going to be interesting to see how the expiry of a contract on report day goes. Should be an interesting morning.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 1:56 a.m.
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Thanks for starting a new ng page Mark.

Previous thread here:

"Rather large heat build in later 2nd week, GFS. Slight affect on Atlantic coast and northeast. Mostly in the Mississippi valley region. Gonna be interesing to see how Europe responds to it tonight."

Not sure what you are talking about? The 0z GFS ensemble was actually 6 CDDs COOLER, all from week 2.

Agree that expiration of the front month, September on an EIA report day could mean volatility...........along with a potential hurricane threat!

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 1:57 a.m.
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September Natural Gas Futures See-Saw Along with Demand, Production and Hurricane Potential

 Natural gas futures on Wednesday soared more than 10 cents early, then retreated into negative territory before flattening out and edging back up at the close of trading. The roller coaster action developed amid a decline in production and estimates for a relatively light storage increase, as well as an evolving weather picture and the… 

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 1:59 a.m.
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Temperatures for this weeks EIA report released on Thursday at 9:30 am CDT.

VERY warm to hot Midwest and East Coast. Also West Coast.

By MarkB - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:28 a.m.
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Chart action looks like they are preparing for a short move. I'm on the sideline.

By Jim_M - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:35 a.m.
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I'm guessing the way the market shot up, that it was a bullish report.  I don't know that I saw what the guesses were.

By Jim_M - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:37 a.m.
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Throw a little weekend potential weekend hurricane and it makes for a volatile day/s!  

By MarkB - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:50 a.m.
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Selling the exhaustion @4.121

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:54 a.m.
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Thanks Jim!



 Latest Release   Aug 26, 2021   Actual 29B    Forecast 40B    Previous  46B

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Aug 26, 2021 10:3029B40B46B
Aug 19, 2021 10:3046B31B49B
Aug 12, 2021 10:3049B49B13B
Aug 05, 2021 10:3013B21B36B
Jul 29, 2021 10:3036B43B49B
Jul 22, 2021 10:3049B44B55B
By MarkB - Aug. 26, 2021, 11:06 a.m.
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Pulled the plug @4.112. They aren"t done yet.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 12:04 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Skyrocket Past $4.00 on EIA’s ‘Very Tight’ 29 Bcf Storage Injection

 The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 29 Bcf injection for the week ending Aug. 20, surprising far to the downside and catapulting natural gas futures above $4.00/MMBtu. The September Nymex contract was already sharply higher ahead of the latest EIA report, up 10.0 cents day/day amid current widespread heat and a rebound in export… 

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2021, 12:06 p.m.
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Elevated hurricane (Ida) threat, although not as much production in the GOM as 15 years ago, when this would have been HUGE:

By Jim_M - Aug. 26, 2021, 10:40 p.m.
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Kinda crazy that this only got is to where we were at the beginning of the month.  Friday could be quite a day.  Bullish report and now a hurricane heading right up the chute and storage running kind of weak.  Buckle up!

By metmike - Aug. 27, 2021, 2:07 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Prices Surge to Near $4.20 on EIA’s ‘Very Tight’ 29 Bcf Storage Build

 September natural gas futures rocketed higher Thursday, buoyed by a shockingly tight government storage print and a rebound in liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand. The prompt month hit a $4.193/MMBtu intraday higher and went on to settle at $4.184, up 28.7 cents from Wednesday’s close. The October contract jumped 28.6 cents to $4.211. Spot gas… 

metmike: I'm thinking these are the highest prices at this time of year in well over a decade?

By metmike - Aug. 27, 2021, 3:23 a.m.
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Latest on soon to be Hurricane Ida:

By metmike - Aug. 27, 2021, 3:47 a.m.
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GFS was a couple CDD's warmer but European model was more than -4 CDD cooler.

By metmike - Aug. 27, 2021, 11:58 a.m.
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metmike: September ng expires today. I was thinking yesterday, earlier this week. It's all IDA and the bullish storage and not temps.

Up, Up and Away!’ for Natural Gas Prices as Ida Seen Landing East of LNG Interests


Following through on the previous session’s prodigious rally and then some, natural gas futures soared early Friday as traders contemplated tight balances and a potential major Gulf Coast hurricane. The expiring September Nymex contract was up 18.0 cents to $4.364/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. October was up 17.2 cents to $4.383. At 8 a.m.… 

By MarkB - Aug. 29, 2021, 5:57 p.m.
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Looks like a gap up opening coming. Probably crap out later.

By metmike - Aug. 29, 2021, 6:25 p.m.
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Great call Mark!

I'm guessing you're right on the crap part too.

By MarkB - Aug. 29, 2021, 6:56 p.m.
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As soon as they know that no rigs or production plants are damaged (which I doubt they are), it will fall like manna from the sky. ;-)

edit: As an added thought, would the power outages for a few days have any affect? There are about 6 gas companies right in the middle of the track, and they will experience some delay of production.

By metmike - Aug. 30, 2021, 1:06 a.m.
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That's a great point Mark!

Power outages are bearish!

Maybe not REAL bearish but it means less demand.

By metmike - Aug. 30, 2021, noon
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It crapped and got crushed just like you speculated it would Mark!

By metmike - Aug. 30, 2021, 2:11 p.m.
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From earlier this morning:

Ida Weakens to Tropical Storm after Knocking Out Most Natural Gas, Oil Output in GOM

 Nearly all of the natural gas and oil produced in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was shut-in, as the unrelenting terror of Hurricane Ida stormed ashore Louisiana, knocking out power to more than one million people and killing at least one person.  The Category 4 hurricane on Monday had weakened to a tropical storm with… 

metmike: Natural gas did a gap higher at the end of a strong move up that was filled and proven to be a buying exhaustion(at least a short term one).  The shrinking storage situation,  with Winter coming up, however is not resolved and remains extremely bullish right now. 

Here's a good discussion/explanation for gap and craps.

                Gap and Crap buying exhaustion formation            

                            1 response |         

                Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.    

By metmike - Aug. 30, 2021, 6:59 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Fall as Ida Slashes Demand; Storm Tees Up ‘Tame September’

 Though still early for a full assessment of former Hurricane Ida, natural gas futures traders on Monday focused squarely on the destruction of natural gas demand brought about by the catastrophic Category 4 storm. The October Nymex gas futures contract, on its first day in the prompt position, settled at $4.305, off 8.3 cents from… 

metmike: Demand destruction.

By metmike - Aug. 31, 2021, 1:06 p.m.
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ICE Logs Record Open Interest on North American, European Natural Gas Contracts

 Contracts tied to North American natural gas prices saw record open interest on Wednesday (Aug. 25), according to Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE). Open interest for ICE’s North American natural gas futures and options, which include Henry Hub and U.S. basis markets contracts, saw an unprecedented open interest of 23 million lots. Altogether, that represents a… 

By metmike - Sept. 1, 2021, 12:51 p.m.
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Tuesday after the close:

‘Big Picture’ Fuels Rebound for Natural Gas Futures Despite Near-Term Weakness

 Natural gas traders flipped the script on futures pricing Tuesday, with the near-term prospects of another small storage injection stealing the limelight — at least temporarily — from former Hurricane Ida’s crushing toll on demand. The October Nymex contract plunged as much as 9.0 cents lower day/day, but it found support and rebounded sharply to… 

Wednesday Morning:

Natural Gas Rises as Analysts See Potential for Lasting GOM Supply Impacts

 The prospect of prolonged Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production shut-ins in the wake of Hurricane Ida helped send natural gas futures higher in early trading Wednesday. The October Nymex contract was up 7.1 cents to $4.448/MMBtu as of around 8:50 a.m. ET. Bullish indicators have increased for the natural gas market since Tuesday morning, according… 

   September 1, 2021

By MarkB - Sept. 1, 2021, 8:23 p.m.
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Tomorrow's forecast is 25.

With the shutins this week, that will create an even smaller injection for next week's report. The bull market remains.

Also saw an EIA article predicting a lower than usual storage for this coming winter months. Hhhhmmm.

By metmike - Sept. 1, 2021, 9:06 p.m.
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Thanks Mark,

Temperatures were  hot last week for much of the country except the yes, the EIA report should be pretty bullish!

By joelund - Sept. 2, 2021, 10:44 a.m.
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Couple of minutes before shift change.

Nat Gas Industry can't fill storage. 20 BCF build week ending 08/27.

Rigs available but labor a problem especially for frac crews.

This guy really needs an editor but does extensive research on all sources of energy.

By MarkB - Sept. 2, 2021, 10:59 a.m.
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joelund, thanks!!! Gonna have to keep up with this guy.