long bonds going into a wedge here. are we going to break up, or down?
my bet would be that we break down, but i am often wrong on bonds.
Great question bear!
Definitively a wedge/triangle which often, in a strong/long uptrend, is a continuation pattern when it breaks out to the upside but we can only see back to May on that chart.
Let's look farther back and see what's there.
The T'bond price direction is usually inversely correlated with interest rates.
If interest rates are going higher(with inflation) one would expect the bond price to go lower.
Here's the interest rate on the 30 year bond.
Wow! Amazing 40 year downtrend, since the peak of 14.26% in Oct 1981`.
The low was 1.25% in March 2020(last year).
After getting up to 2.4% in March of 2021(this year) we are must below 2% again.
It would be impossible for us to go much lower, enough we had near 0% interest rates and I would guess
that last March was THE low.
Higher interest rates would mean lower bond prices.