metmike: This was from last week but it suggests that China has some big crops this year. If you remember, China got hit with 3 big typhoons in Aug/Sept of 2020 and it greatly reduced yields and caused them to buy up/replace the lost production on the global markets...........which depleted world supplies until.............NOW, with the new crop 2021 about to hit the markets.
Reuters reporting that #China has cancelled at least 5-7 shipments of feed barley from Ukraine, possibly another sign Chinese feed demand may not live up to expectations. China's hope for a strong corn harvest is also cited as a factor for reduced import needs.
This is a review of what happened a year ago in China and hasn't happened in 2021:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/64916/#64948
By metmike - Jan. 29, 2021, 5:09 p.m.
The price of corn in China is almost double ours right now.
That's the main driving item.
Our price is cheap, compared to where the price is in China. It's a global economy.
Why is the price so high in China right now?
Their crop was pummeled by 3 different typhoons late in the growing season last year:
Three typhoons buffeted China’s main corn belt of the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and the Inner Mongolia region in late August and early September, flattening plants and flooding fields just as the corn crop reached maturity.
“Flattened crops are not equal to no harvest, and you might recover some output if the crops get handled properly later,” said Meng Jinhui, senior analyst with Shengda Futures.
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By metmike - Jan. 29, 2021, 5:31 p.m.
metmike:
These are the 3 Typhoons that hit the high production green areas above in China in a very short period late last growing season and did tremendous damage to their corn crop. Soils were already saturated from the first 2, so the winds from the 3rd one left plants more vulnerable to being uprooted:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Pacific_typhoon_season
Main article: Typhoon Bavi (2020)
| Typhoon (JMA) | |
| Category 3 typhoon (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 20 – August 27 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 155 km/h (100 mph) (10-min) 950 hPa (mbar) |
| Typhoon (JMA) | |
| Category 4 typhoon (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 27 – September 3 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 175 km/h (110 mph) (10-min) 935 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Typhoon Maysak (2020)
| Typhoon (JMA) | |
| Category 4 super typhoon (SSHWS) | |
  | |
| Duration | August 30 – September 7 |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min) 910 hPa (mbar) |
Main article: Typhoon Haishen (2020)
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/66925/#67090
By metmike - March 24, 2021, 11:36 p.m.
This is what I think happened, also mentioned earlier at this thread for corn.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/64916/#64948
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These are the 3 Typhoons that hit the high production green areas above in China in a very short period late last growing season and did tremendous damage to their corn and soybean crop. Soils were already saturated from the first 2, so the winds from the 3rd one left corn plants more vulnerable to being uprooted and likely damaged beans too.
China corn prices rolling over, and hanging on by a thread. I would not be long corn banking on the idea that China is going to swoop in and save the day.
USA shipped negligible amounts of #soybeans to #China between April and July, though the August volume likely hit a five-month high. Sept-July exports reached 35.1 mmt (1.29 bbu). Full-year (Sept-Aug) record is 36.1 mmt in 2016/17.
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It's important to track non-#China export demand for U.S. #corn & #soybeans, too. Export prices rose to 8-year highs this summer, likely curbing sales and shipments. Shipped U.S. corn costs have recently been about 62% above the five-year average, soybeans 52% above.
metmike: This actually is really old news from last week but I didn't have it at the time because I was repairing, cleaning and sealing my asphalt driveway the last 2 weeks.
·
As of Aug. 26, some 17.75 million tonnes (652 mbu) of U.S. #soybeans had been sold for export in 2021/22 (started Sept. 1). That is above average for the date but off last year's high of near 24 mmt, and it represents 32% of USDA's full 2021/22 export target.
