metmike: The September crop report is often not a huge market mover but this year will probably be different with stocks so low.
USDA's September U.S. #corn yield has come in above the average trade guess in 13 of the last 17 years. The same is true for #soybeans in 10 of the last 11. Will this year be different? Analysts see corn yield up 1.2 bpa and beans up 0.4 bpa. Acreage is also subject to change.
Still trying to figure out why corn dropped today.
corn lower on fears off extended export problems at the gulf and the basis has collapsed there. Also chart based selling.
U.S. #corn yield comes in at 176.3 bu/acre, up 1.7 from last month. Unchanged to higher yields seen across most of the major producers. Lower yields expected for Ohio and Missouri (still a record in Ohio).
U.S. #corn harvested acres increase by 590,000 over the prior estimate (roughly what was expected by the trade, on average). Big increases in North Dakota and Missouri, reductions in Iowa and Illinois.
Yield for U.S. #soybeans is seen at 50.6 bu/acre versus 50 in Aug. Notable improvement for Minnesota and Delta states. Mostly small changes in top states.
Harvested acres for U.S. #soybeans come in nearly 300,000 below the previous estimate. Mixed changes throughout, but a definite downtrend in mid-South/Delta region.
World ending stocks for #corn, #wheat and #soybeans rise notably from last month's estimates, much more than analysts expected. Corn and wheat crops are larger than last month. #China's corn crop is up 5 mmt, though old and new crop imports are unch at 26 mmt.
USDA reduces #Brazil's #corn crop by 1 mmt, but #Argentina's went up 1.5 mmt. #Soybeans unchanged.