INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 9, 2021, 7:50 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, September 9, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 340K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -14K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 2748000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -160K)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2871B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +20B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 425.395M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.169M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 227.214M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.29M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.727M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.732M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.3%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 22.82M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.003M)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, September 10, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August PPI

 



 

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 858.7K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2200.7K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 295.3K)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days.Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,342.41 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 15,708.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,342.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,071.15.  



The September S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4482.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4548.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4482.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4415.08. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline while extending the July-September trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's crossing at 165-12 would open the door for a test of the August 19th high crossing at 166-06. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, August's low crossing at 162-17 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 166-06. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 167-04. First support is the August's low crossing at 162-17. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 161-06.



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 134.155 would open the door for a possible test of the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Closes below August's low crossing at 133.095 would renew the decline off August's high and open the door for a possible test of the July 14th low crossing at 132.300. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.195. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 135.121. First support is August's low crossing at 133.095. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.300.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:October crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $70.61. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.59. Second support is August's low crossing at $61.74.



October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0842 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $2.1836. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $2.2048. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.0842. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8971.



October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.0868 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2.2117. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.0868. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.8726. 



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the June-2014 high crossing at 5.236 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.235 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.010. Second resistance is the June-2014 high crossing at 5.236. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.568. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.235.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.74 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at $91.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.74. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $93.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $91.80. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $91.78.



The September Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the June 25th high crossing at $119.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $119.19. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at $119.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.86. Second support is August's low crossing at $116.69.



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.3731 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3893. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3985. First support is the August 27th low crossing at 1.3680. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.3602.  



The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0972 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.0997. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1100. First support is August's low crossing at 1.0828. Second support is July low crossing at 1.0801.  

 

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 27th low crossing at $78.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at $80.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 80.04. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $80.50. First support is the August 27th low crossing at $78.69. Second support is August's low crossing at $77.23.



The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight while extending the July-September trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broad perspective September needed to close above August's high crossing at 0.092000 or below August's low crossing at 0.090270 to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the August 16th high crossing at 0.091665. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092000. First support is the August 11th low crossing at 0.090270. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089635.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS:Decembergold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-August-decline crossing at $1861.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $1836.90. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $1839.00. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.



September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.816 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.781 would open the door for a possible test of August's high crossing at $26.090. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.781. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $26.090. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.816. Second support is the August 20th low crossing at $22.835. 



September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the August 30th high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 4.2080 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the August 13th high crossing at 4.4310 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 13th high crossing at 4.4310. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 4.6275. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.2080. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.9615.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high.Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.48 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $5.00 1/4. Second support is the March 31st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2.  



December wheat was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.08 would open the door for a possible test of the July 26th low crossing at $6.75. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.33 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.45. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.86 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.08 1/2. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at $6.75.

 

December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it has renewed its decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $7.29 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.35 1/2. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at $6.79 1/2.   



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 5th low crossing at $8.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the September-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $9.37 1/2. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $9.83 1/2. First support is the August 5th low crossing at $8.80. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.57.   

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were lower overnight. Overnight weakness set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.39. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $12.40 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $324.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $350.4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $350.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $358.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $335.60. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $324.40.


December soybean oil was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, August's low crossing at 56.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 64.00. First support is August's low crossing at 56.42. Second support is June's low crossing at 51.98.      

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $0.70 at $87.40. 



October hogs closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.31 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off the late-August high, the August 24th low crossing at $86.05 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $91.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $91.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $94.05. First support is the August 24th low crossing at $86.05. Second support is August's low crossing at $83.32. 



October cattle closed down $0.60 at $123.15. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $128.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $128.05. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $132.85. First support is today's low crossing at $123.03. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96.



October Feeder cattle closed down $0.38 at $159.67. 



October feeder cattle closed lower for the four-day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $157.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $164.44. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $166.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $159.16. Second support is July's low crossing at $157.15.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $187.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $217.85 is the next upside target. 



December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the November 2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.                           



October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 25th low crossing at 19.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off July's low, the February-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 21.49 is the next upside target.        



December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target. If December renews last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.87 is the next downside target.    

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 9, 2021, 12:16 p.m.
Like Reply

Mucho thank you lotta tallpine!


Natural gas...bull market, GOM supplies still off line..volatile...........EIA was bearish but late season heat adding to the bull but not the main reason for it. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74505/


USDA FRIDAY

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74647/


Exports....sales delayed to Fri by holiday

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74625/


Crop conditions...........cotton down 9%!  spike up Tue night........then back down, USDA report should be bearish

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74645/


Hurricane Larry...........staying way out to sea!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74567/


Eric Snodgrass.............thanks cutworm!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74600/


freight index....thanks bear

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74598/


Ida knocks out oil/ng production

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74583/


Bitcoin........thanks mcfarm

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/74531/