KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 16, 2021
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 19.4)
Prices Paid (previous 71.2)
Employment (previous 32.6)
New Orders (previous 22.8)
Prices Received (previous 53.9)
Delivery Times (previous 26.3)
Inventories (previous -18.1)
Shipments (previous 18.9)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 310K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -35K)
Continuing Claims (previous 2783000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -22K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2923B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +52B)
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 17, 2021
10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.9)
Monday, September 20, 2021
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 75)
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.534M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -7.0%)
Building Permits (previous 1.635M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (previous -195.74B)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +15.3%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.9M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as a rise in crude oil prices helping helped to underpin today's rebound. Early weakness was due poor economic data out of China, which added to concerns over the pace of global growth.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains that would signal that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,126.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 33,741.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,126.35. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at 35,510.71. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 33,554.62. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,741.76.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,122.73 is the next downside target. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 15,708.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,401.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,122.73.
The December S&P 500 posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off the September 3rd high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4416.36 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of August's low crossing at 4339.75. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at 4539.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4416.36. Second support is August's low crossing at 4339.75.
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December T-bonds closed down 15/32's at 163-27.
December T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday while extending the July-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 165-12 is the next upside target. Closes below the September 7th low crossing at 161-20 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 161-01. First resistance is today's high crossing at 164-24. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 165-12. First support is the September 7th low crossing at 161-20. Second support is August's low crossing at 161-01.
December T-notes closed down 75-pts at 133.120.
December T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the August 26th low, the August 17th high crossing at 134.005 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the July 14th low crossing at 132.100 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 134.265. First support is August's low crossing at 132.215. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.100.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July high crossing at $74.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $74.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.16. Second support is August's low crossing at $61.74.
October heating oil closed higher on Wednesday . The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $226.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $210.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $222.52. Second resistance is the the October-2018 high crossing at $226.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $210.30. Second support is the August 27th low crossing at $206.85.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday spiking above the upper boundary of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1022 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $2.2358. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1022. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8726.
October Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and tested the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627 as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the June-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 5.989 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.501 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627. Second resistance is the June-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 5.989. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.936. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.501.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. If December renews the decline off August's high, the June 23rd low crossing at 91.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $92.88. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at 93.18. First support is July's low crossing at 91.78. Second support is the June 23rd low crossing at 91.50.
The December Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the June 25th high crossing at 120.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.38. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at 120.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.17. Second support is August's low crossing at 116.90.
The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3776 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3917. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 1.3727. Second support is the August low crossing at 1.3608.
The December Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 1.0840 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 17th high crossing at 1.1015 is needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.1015. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1103. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0844. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.0840.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 80.46 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is theJuly 30th high crossing at 80.46. Second resistance is the July's high crossing at 81.23. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35. Second support is August's low crossing at 77.24.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday while extending the July-September trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August high crossing at 0.092040 or below August's low crossing at 0.090390 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092040. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092245. First support is August's low crossing at 0.090390. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089690.
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December gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1861.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $1836.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at $1861.30. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $1774.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
December silver closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August 20th low crossing at 22.880 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 24.633 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.633. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 26.090. First support is the August-20th low crossing at 22.880. Second support is August's low crossing at 22.350.
December copper closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 458.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 447.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 458.60. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.60. Second support is August's low crossing at 396.65.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.13 1/4-cents at $5.33 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 3/4 as it extended the short covering rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 1/4. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.97 1/2. Second support is the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.11 1/2-cents at $7.12 1/4.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.19 3/4 would signal the near-term low has been posted. If December renews the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $7.19 3/4. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.13 1/2-cents at $7.15 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.11 1/2 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the August 27th high crossing at $7.35 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 7th high crossing at $7.29 3/4. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.35 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.79 1/2.Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.17 1/2-cents at $9.04 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the August 30th high crossing at $9.27 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $9.27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $9.37 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.57. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.12-cents at $12.94 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.99 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.99 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.32. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $12.62 3/4. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $2.40 at $339.40.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $346.60 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $346.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $355.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $335.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00.
December soybean oil closed up 164-pts. at 58.51.
December soybean oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 53.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.88. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 55.36. Second support is June's low crossing at $53.10.
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October hogs closed up $1.65 at $82.03.
October hogs closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off the August 30th high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $85.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $79.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13.
October cattle closed down $0.05 at $124.08.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $126.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $122.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $124.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $126.85. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96. Second support is June's low crossing at $122.90.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.48 at $156.68.
October feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $160.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $164.23. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $155.98. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $182.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $190.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the November 2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.76 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 17.74.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.55 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!