KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 17, 2021
10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 70.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 65.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.9)
Monday, September 20, 2021
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 75)
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.534M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -7.0%)
Building Permits (previous 1.635M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +2.6%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (previous -195.74B)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +15.3%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.9M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as a slowdown both in the U.S. and China have investors carefully weighing economic data. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 33,741.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,115.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,115.49. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at 35,510.71. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 33,554.62. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,741.76.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,137.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 15,708.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 15,307.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,137.23.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 4419.02. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4419.02 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of August's low crossing at 4339.75. First resistance is the September 3rd high crossing at 4539.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4419.02. Second support is August's low crossing at 4339.75.
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December T-bonds closed down 17/32's at 163-10.
December T-bonds closed lower on Thursday while extending the July-September trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 7th low crossing at 161-20 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 161-01. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 165-12 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 164-24. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 165-12. First support is the September 7th low crossing at 161-20. Second support is August's low crossing at 161-01.
December T-notes closed down 105-pts at 133.020.
December T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at 132.215 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the August 26th low, the August 17th high crossing at 134.005 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 133.280. Second resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 134.005. Third resistance is August's high crossing at 134.265. First support is August's low crossing at 132.215. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 132.100.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the July high crossing at $74.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 30th high crossing at $73.52. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $74.77. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $68.53. Second support is August's low crossing at $61.74.
October heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $226.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $211.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $222.52. Second resistance is the the October-2018 high crossing at $226.82. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $215.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $211.22.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1104 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2358. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.8181. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1104. Second support is August's low crossing at $1.8726.
October Henry natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday following Wednesday's test of the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the June-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 5.989 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.573 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline crossing at 5.627. Second resistance is the June-2013 high on the monthly chart crossing at 5.989. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.005. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.573.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the August 27th high crossing at $93.18 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $92.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 27th high crossing at 93.18. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 93.71. First support is September's low crossing at 91.94. Second support is July's low crossing at 91.78. Third support is the June 23rd low crossing at 91.50.
The December Euro closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 116.90 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the June 25th high crossing at 120.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 119.38. Second resistance is the June 25th high crossing at 120.13. First support is today's low crossing at 117.70. Second support is August's low crossing at 116.90.
The December British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3777 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3917. Second resistance is the July 30th high crossing at 1.3977. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 1.3727. Second support is the August low crossing at 1.3608.
The December Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off August's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1953 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1953. Second resistance is the August 17th high crossing at 1.1015. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0801. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0730.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 30th high crossing at 80.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 80.09. Second resistance is theJuly 30th high crossing at 80.46. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 78.35. Second support is August's low crossing at 77.24.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally and at the same time extending the July-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August high crossing at 0.092040 or below August's low crossing at 0.090390 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is August's high crossing at 0.092040. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.092245. First support is August's low crossing at 0.090390. Second support is July's low crossing at 0.089690.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off September's high after U.S. retail sales rose more than 15% during August. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at $1677.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $1810.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1810.60. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1836.90. First support is today's low crossing at $1745.50. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
December silver closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 22.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving acreage crossing at 24.566 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.566. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 24.945. First support is today's low crossing at 22.585. Second support is August's low crossing at 22.350.
December copper closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 458.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 447.15. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 458.60. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 420.60. Second support is August's low crossing at 396.65.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.04-cents at $5.29 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.44. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.97 1/2. Second support is the April 1st gap crossing at $4.77 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $7.13.
December wheat closed fractionally higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18 would signal the near-term low has been posted. If December renews the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $7.18. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.45. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.60 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $7.20 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the August 27th high crossing at $7.35 1/2 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 7th high crossing at $7.29 3/4. Second resistance is the August 27th high crossing at $7.35 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.79 1/2.Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August-rally crossing at $6.58 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01 3/4-cents at $9.04 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the August 30th high crossing at $9.27 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $9.27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $9.37 1/2. First support is the July 26th low crossing at $8.57. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $8.44 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $12.96.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.96 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.96 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.31 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $12.62 3/4. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $12.59 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $4.50 at $344.10.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $345.80 would signal that a low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $345.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $354.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $335.40. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $324.00.
December soybean oil closed down 153-pts. at 56.84.
December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 53.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.82. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 55.36. Second support is June's low crossing at $53.10.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $3.20 at $85.48.
October hogs closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off the August 30th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.04. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $79.77. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $76.13.
October cattle closed down $0.85 at $123.32.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $126.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at $122.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $123.88. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $126.57. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $120.96. Second support is June's low crossing at $122.90.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.53 at $157.03.
October feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.78 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $159.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.78. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $155.98. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at $152.42.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.14 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of August's low crossing at $174.50. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $189.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the November 2020 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 28.21 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 25.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.76 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 18.80.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 91.65 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off May's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 97.35 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!