INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 12, 2018, 4:06 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, July 13, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (expected +0.0%; previous +0.6%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.1%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +5.9%)



10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary



                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 98.0; previous 99.3)



                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 87.4)



                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 117.9)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 rallied to a record high on Thursday supported by large-capitalization technology and internet stocks, which extended their massive year-to-date rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 7182.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the today's high crossing at 7375.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7077.51. Second resistance is June's low crossing at 6956.00. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday and above June's high as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.45 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2799.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2809.03. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2737.45. Second support is June's low crossing at 2694.50.  



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as NATO Approves More Military Spending. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 25,402.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,507.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 24,945.38. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 25,402.83. First support is June's low crossing at 23,997.21. Second support is May's low crossing at 23,531.31.      



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September T-bonds closed down 4/32's at 145-11.



September T-bonds closed lower on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 146-11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 147-09. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143-09.       



September T-notes closed down 20-points at 120-060.



September T-notes closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.005 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 121.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 121.030. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.172. Second support is June's low crossing at 118.295.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's decline, which was triggered by news that Libya and Saudi Arabia will increase oil exports. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 75.27. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.08.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.27. 



August heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.79 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 206.89 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 229.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 223.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is June's low crossing at 206.89. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 



August unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 212.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 226.86. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and is poised to extend the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 2.727 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.905 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.043. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.780. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.727.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 95.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 92.76. First resistance is June's high crossing at 95.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 93.60. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.    



The September Euro closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 115.82 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.27. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound closed unchanged on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3410 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3410. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is June's low crossing at 1.3095. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 



The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday and below May's low crossing at 1.0057 marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range, weekly support crossing at 1.0014 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0150 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0029. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0014. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday leaving Wednesday's key reversal down unconfirmed at this time. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's decline, June's low crossing at 74.80 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  



The September Japanese Yen plunged to a new low against the US Dollar as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 0.8908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9146 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9052. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9146. First support is today's low crossing at 0.8915. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.8908.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1262.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1262.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1274.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1242.20. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1213.00.



September silver closed higher on Thursday as it bounced off support crossing at 15.800. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.267 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.267. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.499. First support is today's low crossing at 15.780. Second support is the July-2017 low crossing at 15.625.        



August copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 257.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 285.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.26. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 272.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 257.85. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up 5 1/4-cents at 3.58 1/2. 



December corn posted a key reversal up on Thursday after the release of today's monthly supply-demand report from USDA slashed forecasts of corn carryout.

Today'sUSDA WASDE report for 2018/19 domestic corn showed larger corn supplies however; greater feed and residual use along with increased exports and lower ending stocks was supportive for the market. The USDA raised its forecast for 2018/19 corn production by 190 million bushels to 14.230 billion bushels due entirely to increased acreage. The USDA did not alter its estimates for per-acre corn yields, at 174.0 bpa. Analysts predicted that number would come in between 172.6 bpa and 179.5 bpa. On the demand side, the USDA raised its projected feed and residual use by 75 million bushels and exports by 125 million bushels. That leaves 2017/18 U.S. corn ending stocks at an estimated 2.027 billion bushels, with 2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks coming in moderately lower at 1.552 billion bushels. World ending stocks for 2017/18 are now estimated at 191.73 million metric tons down from June estimates, with world ending stocks for 2018/19 now estimated at 151.96 million metric tons down more than 1.7% from June estimates.  

The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 3.50 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.  



December wheat closed up 9 3/4-cents at 5.00 1/4. 



December wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The USDA's estimates of 2018 U.S. all-wheat production came in higher as it raised this month estimate to 1.881 billion bushes up from June estimates of 1.827 billion bushels. That was mostly due to an increase in spring wheat production estimates, which were 47% higher than June estimates, to 614 million bushels due largely to high quality ratings and favorable growing conditions. Winter wheat production estimates, on the other hand, moved slightly lower, from 1.198 billion bushels in June to 1.193 billion bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.30 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.75 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.90. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.73 3/4.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7-cents at 5.05 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday following a slightly friendly USDA WASDE report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If December resumes the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. Multiple closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.33 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4.93 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.87 3/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 5-cents at 5.49 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday due to short covering.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off May's, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.66 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.66 3/4. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 5.76 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.42 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up 1 3/4-cents at 8.50. 



November soybeans closed slightly higher on Thursday due to spillover strength from corn and wheat. The USDA expects higher ending stocks for 2018/19 U.S. soybeans. This year’s production could reach 4.310 billion bushels, up 30 million due to increased harvested area, although USDA did not alter its per-acre yield forecasts, still at 48.5 bpa. Lower U.S. prices increase demand and market share. As a result, the USDA estimates for 2018/19 U.S. soybean stocks were raised from 385 million bushels in June to 580 million bushels in July. The USDA’s estimate for 2017/18 U.S. soybean stocks, however, declined from 505 million bushels to 465 million bushels. Analysts were expecting that number to move higher, with an average guess of 512 million bushels. The USDA raised its estimates of world ending soybean stocks for 2017/18 to 96.02 million metric tons. 2018/19 world ending stocks saw an even larger increase to 98.27 million metric tons. Those estimates caught trade analysts off-guard, expecting revisions to 92.0 MMT and 88.7 MMT, respectively.

The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 8.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 8.38. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal closed down $2.50 at 327.80. 



December soybean meal closed unchanged on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 349.60. First support is today's low crossing at 322.40. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil closed down 17-points. At 28.65. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 28.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.88. First support is June's low crossing at 28.50. Second support is the August-2015 crossing at 28.17.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $1.63 at $70.43. 



August hogs closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 67.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 80.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 68.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 67.35.  



October cattle closed up $1.35 at 107.60. 



October cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 105.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $1.63 at $151.03. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 153.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 149.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 146.04.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.51 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.   



September cocoa closed unchanged on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 23.41 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. 



October sugar closed lower on Thursday as it posted a new contract low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed limit up on Thursday on friendly USDA supply-demand data. The limit up close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, the  62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 90.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - July 12, 2018, 5:13 p.m.
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Thanks Tallpine!