For weather related to grains go here:
Upcoming rain makes grain is driving the market again(much cooler temperatures are especially bearish for corn kernel filling, which offsets the bullish crop report):
USDA report was extremely bearish beans but bullish corn and especially next years wheat.
For Beans:
They raised next years ending stocks in the US from 385 million on the last estimate to 580 million. Wow!
World ending stocks went from 87.02 all the way up to 98.27 Wow!
Corn ending stocks in the US for next year drop to 1.552, just a tad less than the previous estimate. World ending stocks are also less than the previous forecast for next year 154.69 down to 151.96.
Wheat ending stocks for next year drop from the previous forecast of 266 down to 260
From Farm Futures:
Weather, supplies dent bullish hopes. (Comments are updated by 7:30 a.m. Central Time.)
http://www.farmfutures.com/story-morning-market-review-bryce-knorr-0-30780
CZ has been as low as 352 but above yesterdays contract low at 350.25..........before the bullish USDA report. Currently at 355, this is 73c below the highs from around 6 weeks ago.
Beans have spiked down to 827, new lows. This was over $2.30 below their highs from 6 weeks ago.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
Is the bottom in? If we have heat fill(extended heat from late July thru August), it is. If we turn cooler later this month, maybe not.
3 month below
1 year below
5 year below
|
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently at 10 year lows !!!!!
Soybeans 3 months below
| |
Soybeans 1 year chart below
| |
Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently at 10 year lows!
| |
By wglassfo - July 11, 2018, 6:49 p.m.
No doubt in my mind
We are watching price destruction
I also think a lot of high price rented land may come back on the market
Rent and land prices always seem to reflect COP
I read where it was thought 82% of all land in Iowa was paid for
Unless we have a repeat of 20% int rates I doubt we see massive farmer Bk as in the 80's
However, make no mistake, grain and livestock plus dairy prices are set to take a further tumble
I doubt we could lose enough potential yield in the growing season left to bring prices back up 2.00 and 70 cents
This crop will sell for less than any of the past 5 yrs and maybe 10 yrs
It happens
Remember
Jimmy Carter
When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price
I fear gov't much more than dry/wet weather
Weather usually last for 1 yr unless you farm in a high risk area
Gov't can mess with market price or some dang thing for a much longer time frame
But:
We will see most farmers tighten the belt on spending which in turn will affect a large portion of the economy
As we see new car sales begin to fall off, with new buyers unable to obtain financing, new farm machinery sales taper off, kitchen appliances fall off as the tarrifs start to increase price, perhaps the demand for steel will taper off a bit
Will beer in a glass bottle make a come back
Doubt it for beer
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By cliff-e - July 11, 2018, 8:15 p.m.
As long as Don the Con keeps bad mouthing our allies we can expect more of this reality...
"Remember
Jimmy Carter
When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price"-
Therein lies the problem...people don't remember this grain embargo. The grain still moved to Russia but thru back channels of multinational grain cos. Once the grain is loaded and in international waters it can go anywhere. And the farmer got screwed back then just as they are now with Trump's tariff fiasco.
Extended guidance is looking very cool which means the opposite of heat fill for corn............it means a slower rate of maturity and longer time to fill kernels...........which get plumper when its cool.............. perfect weather.
From June 20th: