5 % increase in int rates are impossible
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Started by wglassfo - Oct. 8, 2021, 12:25 p.m.

So you say an increase of 5 % int rates is impossible

The economy and most family budgets let alone gov't borrowing could not tolerate such an increase

Okay: So where do we go??

Inflation is way up

Do you think prices will come back to where they were a yr ago???

Don't know what you think but I think prices will only go one way   UP

So does the Fed allow inflation with int rates at zero

Let's say your stks go up

What will that increased value buy vs today???

What happens now and a yr from now and 2 yrs from now etc???

You tell me or do you care what happens

Are you prepared for 2 yrs from now??? if inflation continues and the Fed won't touch int rates

I am trying to decide about fall fertilizer

Will fertilizer come down or go even higher, so inflation affects me also

As of now my fall fertilizer will cost me approx 25 % more/acre

Nest spring is when the high priced fertilizer is used with our system 

50 % increase in price and I need it for normal yields. Skimp next spring and yields will be less Some USA producers were talking more of an increase in price but our CAD price seems to be less than some USA prices

We did buy 50 % of our needs at a lower price this summer and we have storage tanks to take delivery. That helped lower our COP

Just the way it is Take a guess and hope you don't get hurt too much such as a re-fi on a house bought recently

By metmike - Oct. 8, 2021, 1:35 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

I don't think anything is impossible in this environment.

By wglassfo - Oct. 10, 2021, 1:45 p.m.
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I imagine most of you think a measly 5 % increase in int rates over what you  pay now for any debt you may have is out of the question. Most of you consider a 5 % increase in int rates on the natn'l debt to be impossible

I am making some assumptions so if you disagree, please speak up, although I believe 10 % increase in int rates is what we need. But I know you won't agree with me, so why do I even bother to try.

Congress raised the debt ceiling, effectively telling us default on gov't debt is not what congress wants, although the Pubs have said the Dems need to take care of business and make sure it don't happen again. Knowing the Dems they will create a crisis again but that is another day.

So: Most economist will tell you either inflate or default

Since default is out of the question we can look forward to inflation

I don't know what you think but my guess is with out a recession a 10 % real rate of inflation is very possible, maybe even more. Tell me I am wrong and why??

Stks go up, houses go up, pump gas goes up, NG goes up, appliances go up, stocking stuffers for Xmas go up

In fact very little goes down unless we have a recession

People might stop buying houses in quantity, thus houses may sort of peak

Can you think of any thing else that will peak

Even if it does peak, the price did not go down

So tell me

What drives inflation. You say the fed does. Well explain to me how, the Fed printing money affects the price you and I pay for stuff. The Fed has been printing money since dat one and we haven't talked about inflation like we do today or have we seen inflation like we do today

So tell me

What changed

What is different about today vs 10 yrs ago???

I can tell you what changed but you will have to tell me

Why should I tell you??

By metmike - Oct. 11, 2021, 11:25 a.m.
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Thanks Wayne!

An increase like that would cause the interest on the US national debt to sky rocket!