This was from last week.
The government reporting offices are closed today because of the holiday, so we'll have the update tomorrow.
There's also a USDA report out tomorrow, Oct. 12th.
The #corn market is indeed becoming more comfortable with current supply levels as carry has appeared in the old-new crop spread for the first time in exactly a year. Dec21 corn finished at $5.12-1/4 per bushel Wednesday and Dec22 ended 2.5 cents above that.
The 2011 and 2012 examples show that even in very tight supply years, this relationship comes under a great deal of pressure during harvest. But it had stabilized by mid-Oct. Last year was the exception as futures rallied during harvest with little/no hesitation.
This is a review of what happened a year ago in China and hasn't happened in 2021:
By metmike - Jan. 29, 2021, 5:09 p.m.
The price of corn in China is almost double ours right now.
That's the main driving item.
Our price is cheap, compared to where the price is in China. It's a global economy.
Why is the price so high in China right now?
Their crop was pummeled by 3 different typhoons late in the growing season last year:
Three typhoons buffeted China’s main corn belt of the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and the Inner Mongolia region in late August and early September, flattening plants and flooding fields just as the corn crop reached maturity.
“Flattened crops are not equal to no harvest, and you might recover some output if the crops get handled properly later,” said Meng Jinhui, senior analyst with Shengda Futures.
By metmike - Jan. 29, 2021, 5:31 p.m.
These are the 3 Typhoons that hit the high production green areas above in China in a very short period late last growing season and did tremendous damage to their corn crop. Soils were already saturated from the first 2, so the winds from the 3rd one left plants more vulnerable to being uprooted:
Main article: Typhoon Bavi (2020)
|Category 3 typhoon (SSHWS)|
|Duration||August 20 – August 27|
|Peak intensity||155 km/h (100 mph) (10-min) 950 hPa (mbar)|
|Category 4 typhoon (SSHWS)|
|Duration||August 27 – September 3|
|Peak intensity||175 km/h (110 mph) (10-min) 935 hPa (mbar)|
Main article: Typhoon Maysak (2020)
|Category 4 super typhoon (SSHWS)|
|Duration||August 30 – September 7|
|Peak intensity||195 km/h (120 mph) (10-min) 910 hPa (mbar)|
Main article: Typhoon Haishen (2020)
By metmike - March 24, 2021, 11:36 p.m.
This is what I think happened, also mentioned earlier at this thread for corn.
These are the 3 Typhoons that hit the high production green areas above in China in a very short period late last growing season and did tremendous damage to their corn and soybean crop. Soils were already saturated from the first 2, so the winds from the 3rd one left corn plants more vulnerable to being uprooted and likely damaged beans too.