KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, October 15, 2021
8:30 AM ET. October Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 34.3)
Employment Idx (previous 20.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 33.7)
Prices Received (previous 47.8)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. September Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -2.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1265.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1041.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 333.2K)
10:00 AM ET. August Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 71.0)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 67.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.1)
Monday, October 18, 2021
9:15 AM ET. September Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 76.4%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)
10:00 AM ET. October NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 76)
Tuesday, October 19, 2021
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. September New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.615M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous +3.9%)
Building Permits (previous 1.728M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +6.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, October 20, 2021
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx
Composite Idx, W/W%
Purchase Idx-SA
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%
Refinance Idx
Refinance Idx, W/W%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)
Refinery Usage
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)
Total Prod Supplied, (Bbl/day) Net Chg
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 35,669.69 would signal an upside breakout of the May-October trading range and a resumption off the long-term uptrend. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,702.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 35,669.69. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,702.94. Second support is October low crossing at 33.785.54. Third support is September's low crossing at 33,613.03.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 15,702.25 is the next downside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,940.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 15,446.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 15,702.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,169.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,940.79.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 4539.50 would renew this year's rally. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4397.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 4539.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4432.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4397.39.
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December T-bonds closed down 15/32's at 157-21
December T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the June 16th low crossing at 156-15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 159-06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 160-20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-19. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-August rally crossing at 157-13. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 156-15.
December T-notes closed up 145-pts at 130.065.
December T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 130.010 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.103 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.103. Second resistance is the October 14th high crossing at 131.195. First support is today's low crossing at 130.045. Second support is May's low crossing at 130.045.
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December crude oil posted an outside day down on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $83.96. Second resistance is the October-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $92.96.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.52. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at $72.82.
December heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $279.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $244.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $259.83. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $279.19. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $253.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $244.77.
December unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the January-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 250.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $229.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at $245.48. Second resistance is the January-2014 highon the monthly continuation chart crossing at 250.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $238.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $229.04.
December Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.087 would open the door for additional weakness. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.698 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.478. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.593. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.087. Second support is the September 21st low crossing at 4.879.
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The December Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 94.57. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $94.82. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.26. Second support is the September 23rd low crossing at $92.97.
The December Euro closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.29. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 117.75. First support is October's low crossing at 115.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 114.56.
The December British Pound closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.3917 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3643 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3832. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3917. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3716. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3643.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1.0968 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0813 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1921. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0813. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.0693.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level off the June-August decline crossing at 81.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 26th high crossing at 81.55. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level off the June-August decline crossing at 81.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.63. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.99.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the December-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084275 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.088919 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.087968. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.088919. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.087215. Second support is the December-2016 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084275.
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December gold closed higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $1836.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1763.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 14th high crossing at $1810.60. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1836.90. First support is September's low crossing at $1721.10. Second support is August's low crossing at $1677.90.
December silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 24.945 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving acreage crossing at 22.889 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 24.550. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 24.945. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.889. Second support is September's low crossing at 21.410.
December copper closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 438.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 458.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 482.30. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 487.05. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 455.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 438.43.
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December Corn closed down $0.07-cents at $5.32 1/4.
December corn closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at $5.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 30th high crossing at $5.48 1/2. Second resistance is the August 30th high crossing at $5.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2. Second support is October's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
December wheat closed down $0.07 1/2-cents at $7.41 3/4.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $7.86 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 13th low crossing at $7.12 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.63 1/2. Second resistance is the August high crossing at $7.86 1/2. First support is the September 30th low crossing at $7.01 1/4. Second support is the September 21st low crossing at $6.86.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/4-cents at $7.48 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it posted a key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $7.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.24 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.61 3/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $7.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.24 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $9.85 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally above the August high, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $10.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.43 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.96 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $10.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.43 1/4.
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November soybeans closed down $0.22 1/2-cents at $12.23.
November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.40 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $11.52 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.40 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.78 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $11.84 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $11.52 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $4.70 at $323.70.
December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last week's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $338.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $307.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $338.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $347.30. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $309.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $307.30.
December soybean oil closed down 215-pts. at 62.55.
December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 66.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 66.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 54.18.
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December hogs closed down $2.73 at $73.30.
December hogs gapped down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the September low crossing at $71.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $81.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.23. First support is today's low crossing at $73.10. Second support is September's low crossing at $71.27.
December cattle closed down $1.00 at $129.53.
December cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $128.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $130.65 would open the door for a larger-degree rally. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $130.65. Second resistance is minor resistance crossing at $133.08. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $128.55. Second support is October's low crossing at $125.00.
November Feeder cattle closed down $0.40 at $158.95.
November feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $158.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.97 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $162.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $162.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $158.48. Second support is September's low crossing at $152.00.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $200.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at $217.86 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at 24.81 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 18.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 134.17 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!