Not enough data to justify the effort last week. No significat metrics to report today and we are leaving for a little weekend getaway, so off we go.
| Date | Prior | Current | Rating | |
| NFIB Small Business Optimism_M/M | Sep-21 | 99.50 | 99.10 | C |
| JOLTS (Job Openings)_M/M | Aug-21 | 10.934M | 10.439M | C |
| Empire State Mfg_M/M | Sep-21 | 34.30 | 19.80 | C |
| Philly Fed Mfg_M/M | Oct-21 | 30.70 | 23.80 | C |
| Industrial Production_M/M | Sep-21 | 0.40 | -1.30 | C- |
| Housing Market Index_M/M | Oct-21 | 76.00 | 80.00 | C+ |
| Housing Starts_M/M | Sep-21 | 1.615M | 1.555M | C- |
| Housing Permits_M/M | Sep-21 | 1.728M | 1.589M | C- |
| Existing Homes Sales_M/M | Sep-21 | 5.880M | 6.290M | C+ |
| CPI_M/M | Sep-21 | 0.30 | 0.40 | C- |
| Retail Sales_M/M | Sep-21 | 0.70 | 0.70 | C |
| Consumer Sentiment_M/M | Oct-21 | 72.80 | 71.40 | C- |
| RedBook1_W/W | 10/9/2021 | 16.40 | 14.80 | C- |
| RedBook2_W/W | 10/16/2021 | 14.80 | 15.10 | C+ |
| Jobless Claims1_W/W | 10/9/2021 | 326K | 293K | B- |
| Jobless Claims2_W/W | 10/16/2021 | 293K | 290K | C |
| Leading Indicators_M/M | Sep-21 | 0.90 | 0.20 | C |
Consumer Sentiment retreated a bit in the last month and is to the historically low side. Small Business was steady, but off recent highs.
CPI remains in the danger zone showing a 30 year high 5.4% annual rate.
There's a mixed bag in Housing. Starts and Permits were down significantly while there was strength in Existing Sales and the Index, a good leading indicator in Housing was positive, tho well off highs. Material costs and availablility, Labor and Inventory continue to be a problem.
MFG, while still show mostly strong, is moderating with Industrial Production taking a hit.
Leading Indicators also moderated a bit, no doubt impacted by Housing Starts.
Retail Sales were steady at a decent rate and while RedBook is well off recent highs, it still remains in historically high places.
JOLTS (Job Openings) dropped about 500K but still remains at unseen levels.
Jobless Claims are the headline this week returning to pre-pandemic and historicaly low levels at sub 300K. Let's hope it continues.
Some good news this week, particularly Jobless claims but I have some concerns with moderation and the underlying that limit me to a C for the week.
Thanks much Tim!
Get all of Tim's reports from 2020/2021 here!